Utah Mammoth at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mammoth- Nick SchmaltzGoals1
- Logan CooleyAssists1
- Nick SchmaltzPoints1
Senators- Jordan SpenceGoals1
- Dylan CozensAssists2
- Jordan SpencePoints2
Scoring summary
- P33:46Michael Amadio Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Thomas Chabot (8), Jordan Spence (6)2–4
- P218:56Nick Schmaltz Goal (9) Backhand, assists: Logan Cooley (5), Nick DeSimone (1)2–3
- P215:52Nick Cousins Goal (3) Wrap-around, assists: Dylan Cozens (6), Ridly Greig (5)1–3
- P27:13Jordan Spence Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: David Perron (7)1–2
- P117:33Clayton Keller Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikhail Sergachev (9), Vitek Vanecek (1)1–1
- P113:59Ridly Greig Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Cozens (5)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P113:59Ridly Greig Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Cozens (5)UTA 0 – 1 OTT · OTT 48% → 64% +16OTT 48% → 64%+16 pts
- P117:33Clayton Keller Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikhail Sergachev (9), Vitek Vanecek (1)UTA 1 – 1 OTT · UTA 35% → 52% +17UTA 35% → 52%+17 pts
- P27:13Jordan Spence Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: David Perron (7)UTA 1 – 2 OTT · OTT 48% → 67% +19OTT 48% → 67%+19 pts
- P218:56Nick Schmaltz Goal (9) Backhand, assists: Logan Cooley (5), Nick DeSimone (1)UTA 2 – 3 OTT · UTA 12% → 28% +16UTA 12% → 28%+16 pts
- P33:46Michael Amadio Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Thomas Chabot (8), Jordan Spence (6)UTA 2 – 4 OTT · OTT 75% → 92% +17OTT 75% → 92%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mammoth 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- UTA 52%
- ML UTA -120 / OTT +100
- Pre-line forecast
- UTA 42%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTA 38%
- Ratings vs. market
- −13.7 pts
- UTA: Elo 38.4%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- UTA -109
- OTT +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTA 2.8 – 2.7 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTA | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | UTA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −14 | +8 | UTA: Vitek Vanecek: team allows 0.34 more goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) · OTT: Leevi Merilainen: team allows 0.20 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OTT +82 Elo | OTT 61.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 57.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 58.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | UTA 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| UTA | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.56th of 32 |
| 13th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.731st of 32 |
| 13th of 32+0.2 | Margin | −0.219th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3255.0% | Shot share | 52.1%8th of 32 |
| 29th of 3288.2% | Save percentage | 86.1%32nd of 32 |
| 6th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 10th of 325–5 | Road vs home | 4–313th of 32 |
| 16th of 321500 | Opponent Elo | 148828th of 32 |
| 13th of 321505 | Elo rating | 150016th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTA |  OTT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 7–8 | 5–10 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–6 | 1–9 |
| Underdog | 5–2 | 4–1 |
| Overs–unders | 7–8 | 10–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTA 0–2 OTT in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.