Ottawa Senators at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators- Claude GirouxGoals1
- Claude GirouxAssists1
- Claude GirouxPoints2
Bruins- Sean KuralyGoals1
- Andrew PeekeAssists2
- Andrew PeekePoints2
Scoring summary
- OT4:54Pavel Zacha Goal (4) Poke, assists: Charlie McAvoy (12)2–3
- P311:52Claude Giroux Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: David Perron (5), Thomas Chabot (6)2–2
- P216:03Sean Kuraly Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Tanner Jeannot (4), Andrew Peeke (4)1–2
- P21:22Morgan Geekie Goal (10) Poke, assists: Andrew Peeke (3)1–1
- P15:42Michael Amadio Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Shane Pinto (5), Claude Giroux (7)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:42Michael Amadio Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Shane Pinto (5), Claude Giroux (7)OTT 1 – 0 BOS · OTT 59% → 73% +14OTT 59% → 73%+14 pts
- P21:22Morgan Geekie Goal (10) Poke, assists: Andrew Peeke (3)OTT 1 – 1 BOS · BOS 26% → 43% +17BOS 26% → 43%+17 pts
- P216:03Sean Kuraly Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Tanner Jeannot (4), Andrew Peeke (4)OTT 1 – 2 BOS · BOS 44% → 67% +23BOS 44% → 67%+23 pts
- P311:52Claude Giroux Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: David Perron (5), Thomas Chabot (6)OTT 2 – 2 BOS · OTT 18% → 53% +35OTT 18% → 53%+35 pts
- OT4:54Pavel Zacha Goal (4) Poke, assists: Charlie McAvoy (12)OTT 2 – 3 BOS · BOS 50% → 100% +50BOS 50% → 100%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Senators 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- OTT 59%
- ML OTT -160 / BOS +135
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.5 pts
- OTT: Elo 47.6%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- OTT -145
- BOS +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 3.0 – 2.5 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −4 | −2 | OTT: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.10 more goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · BOS: Joonas Korpisalo: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +17 Elo | BOS 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 58.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 56.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OTT 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 323.7 | Goals scored | 3.314th of 32 |
| 31st of 323.9 | Goals allowed | 3.425th of 32 |
| 22nd of 32−0.2 | Margin | −0.117th of 32 |
| 7th of 3253.1% | Shot share | 46.6%29th of 32 |
| 31st of 3285.7% | Save percentage | 89.1%25th of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 20th of 322–4 | Road vs home | 6–38th of 32 |
| 28th of 321489 | Opponent Elo | 15084th of 32 |
| 16th of 321500 | Elo rating | 147924th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OTT |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 5–8 | 11–4 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 1–7 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 4–1 | 10–2 |
| Overs–unders | 10–3 | 9–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OTT 5–3 BOS in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.