Ottawa Senators at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators- Tim StutzleGoals2
- Thomas ChabotAssists1
- Tim StutzlePoints2
Flyers- Jamie DrysdaleGoals1
- Christian DvorakAssists2
- Christian DvorakPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT3:19Tim Stützle Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Drake Batherson (11), Thomas Chabot (7)3–2
- P39:55Jamie Drysdale Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Christian Dvorak (6), Trevor Zegras (12)2–2
- P211:23Matvei Michkov Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Christian Dvorak (5), Travis Konecny (8)2–1
- P16:19Michael Amadio Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Claude Giroux (8), Shane Pinto (6)2–0
- P15:14Tim Stützle Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: David Perron (6), Ridly Greig (4)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:14Tim Stützle Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: David Perron (6), Ridly Greig (4)OTT 1 – 0 PHI · OTT 51% → 66% +15OTT 51% → 66%+15 pts
- P16:19Michael Amadio Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Claude Giroux (8), Shane Pinto (6)OTT 2 – 0 PHI · OTT 66% → 79% +13OTT 66% → 79%+13 pts
- P211:23Matvei Michkov Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Christian Dvorak (5), Travis Konecny (8)OTT 2 – 1 PHI · PHI 14% → 29% +15PHI 14% → 29%+15 pts
- P39:55Jamie Drysdale Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Christian Dvorak (6), Trevor Zegras (12)OTT 2 – 2 PHI · PHI 18% → 50% +31PHI 18% → 50%+31 pts
- OT3:19Tim Stützle Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Drake Batherson (11), Thomas Chabot (7)OTT 3 – 2 PHI · OTT 50% → 99% +48OTT 50% → 99%+48 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Senators 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- OTT 51%
- ML OTT -115 / PHI -105
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.8 pts
- OTT: Elo 49.3%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- OTT -104
- PHI +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 2.8 – 2.7 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1467 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −4 | −3 | OTT: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.09 more goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · PHI: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +5 Elo | PHI 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 54.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 53.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OTT 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 323.6 | Goals scored | 2.922nd of 32 |
| 31st of 323.9 | Goals allowed | 2.64th of 32 |
| 20th of 32−0.3 | Margin | +0.412th of 32 |
| 8th of 3252.7% | Shot share | 49.1%19th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3285.8% | Save percentage | 90.6%10th of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 32 |
| 26th of 322–5 | Road vs home | 6–39th of 32 |
| 29th of 321489 | Opponent Elo | 150114th of 32 |
| 17th of 321497 | Elo rating | 146728th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OTT |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 5–9 | 8–6 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–8 | 2–4 |
| Underdog | 4–1 | 6–2 |
| Overs–unders | 10–4 | 7–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OTT 5–2 PHI in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.