New York Rangers at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Mika ZibanejadGoals1
- Adam FoxAssists1
- Mika ZibanejadPoints1
Blue Jackets- Dmitri VoronkovGoals1
- Zach WerenskiAssists1
- Dmitri VoronkovPoints1
Scoring summary
- SO0:00J.T. Miller Goal Snap Shot2–1
- SO0:00Kirill Marchenko Goal Snap Shot2–1
- SO0:00Vincent Trocheck Goal Snap Shot2–1
- P215:20Dmitri Voronkov Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Zach Werenski (9), Kirill Marchenko (12)1–1
- P25:42Mika Zibanejad Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Artemi Panarin (12), Adam Fox (13)1–0
Turning points
The 2 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P25:42Mika Zibanejad Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Artemi Panarin (12), Adam Fox (13)NYR 1 – 0 CBJ · NYR 51% → 69% +18NYR 51% → 69%+18 pts
- P215:20Dmitri Voronkov Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Zach Werenski (9), Kirill Marchenko (12)NYR 1 – 1 CBJ · CBJ 28% → 49% +21CBJ 28% → 49%+21 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- NYR 51%
- ML NYR -115 / CBJ -105
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.4 pts
- NYR: Elo 45.7%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- NYR -104
- CBJ +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYR 3.3 – 3.2 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYR | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | +7 | NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · CBJ: Jet Greaves: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CBJ +30 Elo | CBJ 54.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CBJ 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CBJ 52.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYR 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYR | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 3.212th of 32 |
| 1st of 322.6 | Goals allowed | 3.222nd of 32 |
| 14th of 32+0.1 | Margin | 0.017th of 32 |
| 14th of 3250.2% | Shot share | 50.2%13th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3291.8% | Save percentage | 90.2%11th of 32 |
| 7th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 1st of 328–2 | Road vs home | 4–312th of 32 |
| 25th of 321492 | Opponent Elo | 150311th of 32 |
| 12th of 321510 | Elo rating | 149817th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYR |  CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 10–8 | 10–7 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 4–6 | 1–4 |
| Underdog | 6–2 | 9–3 |
| Overs–unders | 7–11 | 8–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYR 5–3 CBJ in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 8.