Edmonton Oilers at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Oilers- Leon DraisaitlGoals2
- Evan BouchardAssists3
- Evan BouchardPoints3
Blue Jackets- Mathieu OlivierGoals2
- Charlie CoyleAssists2
- Mathieu OlivierPoints3
Scoring summary
- P311:27Leon Draisaitl Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Evan Bouchard (12), Connor McDavid (20)4–5
- P37:57Vasily Podkolzin Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Roslovic (7)3–5
- P37:30Mathieu Olivier Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Charlie Coyle (9), Cole Sillinger (5)2–5
- P218:20Adam Fantilli Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Marchenko (11), Damon Severson (4)2–4
- P210:19Denton Mateychuk Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Sean Monahan (7), Luca Del Bel Belluz (1)2–3
- P29:49Leon Draisaitl Goal (11) Slap Shot, assists: Evan Bouchard (11)2–2
- P28:09Matt Savoie Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Evan Bouchard (10), Connor McDavid (19)1–2
- P20:44Charlie Coyle Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Mathieu Olivier (5)0–2
- P115:36Mathieu Olivier Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Charlie Coyle (8), Zach Werenski (8)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P115:36Mathieu Olivier Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Charlie Coyle (8), Zach Werenski (8)EDM 0 – 1 CBJ · CBJ 54% → 70% +16CBJ 54% → 70%+16 pts
- P28:09Matt Savoie Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Evan Bouchard (10), Connor McDavid (19)EDM 1 – 2 CBJ · EDM 14% → 28% +14EDM 14% → 28%+14 pts
- P29:49Leon Draisaitl Goal (11) Slap Shot, assists: Evan Bouchard (11)EDM 2 – 2 CBJ · EDM 28% → 47% +19EDM 28% → 47%+19 pts
- P210:19Denton Mateychuk Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Sean Monahan (7), Luca Del Bel Belluz (1)EDM 2 – 3 CBJ · CBJ 53% → 72% +19CBJ 53% → 72%+19 pts
- P218:20Adam Fantilli Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Marchenko (11), Damon Severson (4)EDM 2 – 4 CBJ · CBJ 75% → 90% +15CBJ 75% → 90%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jackets 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- CBJ 54%
- ML EDM +110 / CBJ -130
- Pre-line forecast
- CBJ 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CBJ 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.4 pts
- CBJ: Elo 54.7%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- CBJ -119
- EDM +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- EDM 3.1 – 3.4 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | EDM | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1538 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | EDM on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −1 | +9 | EDM: Calvin Pickard: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) · CBJ: Jet Greaves: team allows 0.23 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CBJ +33 Elo | CBJ 54.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CBJ 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CBJ 52.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CBJ 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| EDM | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.117th of 32 |
| 26th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 3.218th of 32 |
| 27th of 32−0.4 | Margin | −0.120th of 32 |
| 6th of 3253.2% | Shot share | 50.4%12th of 32 |
| 30th of 3287.3% | Save percentage | 90.4%8th of 32 |
| 22nd of 324–6 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 28th of 323–7 | Road vs home | 3–317th of 32 |
| 24th of 321495 | Opponent Elo | 150019th of 32 |
| 6th of 321538 | Elo rating | 149618th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  EDM |  CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 4–14 | 10–6 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 3–13 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 9–3 |
| Overs–unders | 10–8 | 7–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
EDM 3–2 CBJ in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.