Edmonton Oilers at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Oilers- Jack RoslovicGoals1
- Matt SavoieAssists2
- Matt SavoiePoints2
Flyers- Matvei MichkovGoals1
- Travis KonecnyAssists1
- Matvei MichkovPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT1:19Jack Roslovic Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Savoie (3)2–1
- P215:38Matvei Michkov Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Cam York (9), Travis Konecny (9)1–1
- P119:05Evan Bouchard Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (18), Matt Savoie (2)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P119:05Evan Bouchard Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (18), Matt Savoie (2)EDM 1 – 0 PHI · EDM 51% → 68% +17EDM 51% → 68%+17 pts
- P215:38Matvei Michkov Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Cam York (9), Travis Konecny (9)EDM 1 – 1 PHI · PHI 28% → 49% +22PHI 28% → 49%+22 pts
- OT1:19Jack Roslovic Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Savoie (3)EDM 2 – 1 PHI · EDM 50% → 93% +43EDM 50% → 93%+43 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Oilers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- EDM 51%
- ML EDM -115 / PHI -105
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.0 pts
- EDM: Elo 53.1%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- EDM -104
- PHI +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- EDM 2.8 – 2.7 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | EDM | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1536 | 1465 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −6 | +10 | EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.14 more goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · PHI: Dan Vladar: team allows 0.24 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +21 Elo | EDM 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 56.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 55.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | EDM 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| EDM | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 2.924th of 32 |
| 28th of 323.6 | Goals allowed | 2.65th of 32 |
| 27th of 32−0.5 | Margin | +0.310th of 32 |
| 7th of 3252.8% | Shot share | 49.7%17th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3286.9% | Save percentage | 90.1%11th of 32 |
| 21st of 324–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 32 |
| 28th of 322–7 | Road vs home | 6–412th of 32 |
| 24th of 321496 | Opponent Elo | 149920th of 32 |
| 5th of 321536 | Elo rating | 146528th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  EDM |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 4–13 | 9–6 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 3–12 | 2–4 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 7–2 |
| Overs–unders | 10–7 | 7–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
EDM 2–2 PHI in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.