Calgary Flames at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames- Matt CoronatoGoals1
- Mikael BacklundAssists1
- Matt CoronatoPoints1
Blackhawks- Connor BedardGoals3
- Oliver MooreAssists1
- Connor BedardPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:19Connor Bedard Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–5
- P313:04Oliver Moore Goal (2) Poke, assists: Frank Nazar (8)2–4
- P34:57Connor Bedard Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Greene (3), Andre Burakovsky (8)2–3
- P33:02Rasmus Andersson Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Backlund (7), Adam Klapka (3)2–2
- P219:32Matt Coronato Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Nazem Kadri (8), Rasmus Andersson (5)1–2
- P215:11Connor Bedard Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Sam Rinzel (3)0–2
- P115:05Ryan Donato Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Louis Crevier (8), Oliver Moore (3)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P115:05Ryan Donato Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Louis Crevier (8), Oliver Moore (3)CGY 0 – 1 CHI · CHI 46% → 63% +17CHI 46% → 63%+17 pts
- P215:11Connor Bedard Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Sam Rinzel (3)CGY 0 – 2 CHI · CHI 69% → 86% +17CHI 69% → 86%+17 pts
- P219:32Matt Coronato Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Nazem Kadri (8), Rasmus Andersson (5)CGY 1 – 2 CHI · CGY 12% → 29% +17CGY 12% → 29%+17 pts
- P33:02Rasmus Andersson Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Backlund (7), Adam Klapka (3)CGY 2 – 2 CHI · CGY 26% → 52% +26CGY 26% → 52%+26 pts
- P34:57Connor Bedard Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Greene (3), Andre Burakovsky (8)CGY 2 – 3 CHI · CHI 48% → 75% +27CHI 48% → 75%+27 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Flames 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- CGY 54%
- ML CGY -130 / CHI +110
- Pre-line forecast
- CGY 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CGY 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.2 pts
- CGY: Elo 50.1%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- CGY -119
- CHI +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 2.9 – 2.6 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1465 | 1446 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | −11 | CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) · CHI: Arvid Soderblom: team allows 0.26 more goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CGY +1 Elo | CGY 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CGY 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CGY 50.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CGY 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 32nd of 322.1 | Goals scored | 3.310th of 32 |
| 17th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 2.64th of 32 |
| 30th of 32−1.0 | Margin | +0.73rd of 32 |
| 12th of 3251.0% | Shot share | 44.2%31st of 32 |
| 10th of 3290.3% | Save percentage | 92.1%2nd of 32 |
| 26th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 29th of 322–9 | Road vs home | 4–419th of 32 |
| 19th of 321499 | Opponent Elo | 150511th of 32 |
| 28th of 321465 | Elo rating | 144630th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CGY |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 11–9 | 15–3 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 2–1 | — |
| Underdog | 9–8 | 15–3 |
| Overs–unders | 12–8 | 6–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CGY 4–3 CHI in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 7.