Winnipeg Jets at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Mark ScheifeleGoals1
- Josh MorrisseyAssists2
- Josh MorrisseyPoints2
Flames- Matt CoronatoGoals1
- Morgan FrostAssists2
- Matt CoronatoPoints2
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Gabriel Vilardi Goal Wrist Shot1–0
- P318:46Matt Coronato Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Rasmus Andersson (4), Jonathan Huberdeau (5)3–3
- P31:20Cole Perfetti Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Connor (12), Josh Morrissey (16)3–2
- P213:29Kevin Bahl Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Matt Coronato (4), Morgan Frost (7)2–2
- P28:25Tanner Pearson Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Luke Schenn (1), Logan Stanley (6)2–1
- P27:52Jake Bean Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Brayden Pachal (3), Morgan Frost (6)1–1
- P27:19Mark Scheifele Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Kyle Connor (11), Josh Morrissey (15)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P27:52Jake Bean Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Brayden Pachal (3), Morgan Frost (6)WPG 1 – 1 CGY · CGY 28% → 47% +19CGY 28% → 47%+19 pts
- P28:25Tanner Pearson Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Luke Schenn (1), Logan Stanley (6)WPG 2 – 1 CGY · WPG 53% → 72% +19WPG 53% → 72%+19 pts
- P213:29Kevin Bahl Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Matt Coronato (4), Morgan Frost (7)WPG 2 – 2 CGY · CGY 27% → 47% +20CGY 27% → 47%+20 pts
- P31:20Cole Perfetti Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Connor (12), Josh Morrissey (16)WPG 3 – 2 CGY · WPG 52% → 76% +24WPG 52% → 76%+24 pts
- P318:46Matt Coronato Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Rasmus Andersson (4), Jonathan Huberdeau (5)WPG 3 – 3 CGY · CGY <1% → 49% +49CGY <1% → 49%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jets 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- WPG 54%
- ML WPG -130 / CGY +110
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.1 pts
- WPG: Elo 56.4%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- WPG -119
- CGY +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WPG 2.9 – 2.6 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WPG | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1552 | 1467 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +8 | WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.19 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +45 Elo | WPG 56.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 53.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WPG 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WPG | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 2.132nd of 32 |
| 5th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.116th of 32 |
| 7th of 32+0.5 | Margin | −0.931st of 32 |
| 23rd of 3248.3% | Shot share | 50.5%12th of 32 |
| 4th of 3291.2% | Save percentage | 90.5%8th of 32 |
| 12th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 32 |
| 10th of 325–4 | Road vs home | 3–527th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321480 | Opponent Elo | 149622nd of 32 |
| 2nd of 321552 | Elo rating | 146728th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WPG |  CGY |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 7–10 | 10–9 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 7–9 | 2–1 |
| Underdog | 0–1 | 8–8 |
| Overs–unders | 9–8 | 11–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WPG 5–3 CGY in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 8.