Toronto Maple Leafs at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs- Morgan RiellyGoals1
- John TavaresAssists1
- Morgan RiellyPoints1
Blackhawks- Ryan GreeneGoals1
- Louis CrevierAssists1
- Teuvo TeravainenPoints1
Scoring summary
- P315:35Colton Dach Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Louis Crevier (7), Ilya Mikheyev (3)2–3
- P35:12Teuvo Teravainen Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Frank Nazar (7), Oliver Moore (2)2–2
- P29:37Morgan Rielly Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson (11), William Nylander (18)2–1
- P119:12Nicholas Robertson Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: John Tavares (13)1–1
- P111:05Ryan Greene Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Artyom Levshunov (10), Wyatt Kaiser (3)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P111:05Ryan Greene Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Artyom Levshunov (10), Wyatt Kaiser (3)TOR 0 – 1 CHI · CHI 47% → 63% +16CHI 47% → 63%+16 pts
- P119:12Nicholas Robertson Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: John Tavares (13)TOR 1 – 1 CHI · TOR 35% → 53% +17TOR 35% → 53%+17 pts
- P29:37Morgan Rielly Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson (11), William Nylander (18)TOR 2 – 1 CHI · TOR 52% → 72% +19TOR 52% → 72%+19 pts
- P35:12Teuvo Teravainen Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Frank Nazar (7), Oliver Moore (2)TOR 2 – 2 CHI · CHI 22% → 48% +26CHI 22% → 48%+26 pts
- P315:35Colton Dach Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Louis Crevier (7), Ilya Mikheyev (3)TOR 2 – 3 CHI · CHI 49% → 91% +42CHI 49% → 91%+42 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Maple Leafs 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 53%
- ML TOR -125 / CHI +105
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.1 pts
- TOR: Elo 53.3%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- TOR -114
- CHI +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.3 – 3.2 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1443 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −9 | +9 | TOR: Joseph Woll: team allows 0.23 more goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) · CHI: Spencer Knight: team allows 0.21 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +23 Elo | TOR 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 54.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 54.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 323.6 | Goals scored | 3.310th of 32 |
| 31st of 323.8 | Goals allowed | 2.63rd of 32 |
| 22nd of 32−0.2 | Margin | +0.63rd of 32 |
| 29th of 3246.8% | Shot share | 43.9%31st of 32 |
| 27th of 3288.2% | Save percentage | 92.0%1st of 32 |
| 15th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 32 |
| 29th of 321–4 | Road vs home | 3–424th of 32 |
| 30th of 321491 | Opponent Elo | 15049th of 32 |
| 10th of 321519 | Elo rating | 144331st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 6–12 | 14–3 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 4–11 | — |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 14–3 |
| Overs–unders | 16–2 | 6–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 10–0 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 2–2 CHI in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.