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Toronto Maple Leafs at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast

FinalTNT, HBO Max, truTV

Away

Maple Leafs

8-8-1

3–5

at

Home

Bruins

11-7-0

TOR 55%BOS 45%

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TD Garden · TNT, HBO Max, truTV

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.

BOS favored TOR favored8 scoring plays
P1P2P3BOS50%TOR

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Maple Leafs

Scoring summary

  • P39:48David Pastrnak Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Kastelic (3), Tanner Jeannot (5)3–5
  • P33:32Oliver Ekman-Larsson Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Nicholas Robertson (6), William Nylander (16)3–4
  • P218:58Bobby McMann Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Max Domi (3), Morgan Rielly (12)2–4
  • P20:49David Pastrnak Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Geekie (5), Charlie McAvoy (14)1–4
  • P117:23Alex Steeves Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Hampus Lindholm (4)1–3
  • P19:32Hampus Lindholm Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Mason Lohrei (8), Michael Eyssimont (5)1–2
  • P16:41Steven Lorentz Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–1
  • P14:27Pavel Zacha Goal (5) Deflected, assists: David Pastrnak (12), Charlie McAvoy (13)0–1

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P14:27Pavel Zacha Goal (5) Deflected, assists: David Pastrnak (12), Charlie McAvoy (13)TOR 0 – 1 BOS · BOS 45% → 60% +15
  2. P16:41Steven Lorentz Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: noneTOR 1 – 1 BOS · TOR 40% → 55% +15
  3. P19:32Hampus Lindholm Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Mason Lohrei (8), Michael Eyssimont (5)TOR 1 – 2 BOS · BOS 45% → 61% +16
  4. P33:32Oliver Ekman-Larsson Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Nicholas Robertson (6), William Nylander (16)TOR 3 – 4 BOS · TOR 9% → 27% +17
  5. P39:48David Pastrnak Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Kastelic (3), Tanner Jeannot (5)TOR 3 – 5 BOS · BOS 80% → 96% +16

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Maple Leafs 55%

LeanMiss
TOR 55%BOS 45%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.

Market
TOR 55%
ML TOR -135 / BOS +115
Pre-line forecast
TOR 53%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
TOR 51%
Ratings vs. market
−3.9 pts
TOR: Elo 51.3%, market 55.3%
Fair odds
TOR -124
BOS +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
TOR 2.9 – 2.6 BOS
Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorTORBOSWhy
Team rating15251486Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies+6+1TOR: Anthony Stolarz: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsTOR +9 EloTOR 51.3%
Market-implied ratingsTOR 53.9%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastTOR 53.4%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastTOR 55.3%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

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Toronto Maple Leafs and Boston Bruins compared, with each team's league rank
TORStatBOS
5th of 323.7Goals scored3.48th of 32
31st of 323.8Goals allowed3.322nd of 32
16th of 32−0.1Margin+0.114th of 32
27th of 3247.5%Shot share47.5%29th of 32
27th of 3288.3%Save percentage89.3%22nd of 32
13th of 325–5Last 107–32nd of 32
28th of 321–3Road vs home7–37th of 32
28th of 321489Opponent Elo15103rd of 32
9th of 321525Elo rating148623rd of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

Maple LeafsBruins
145015001550league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonTORBOS
Puck line5–1113–4
Last 103–78–2
Favorite4–101–2
Underdog1–112–2
Overs–unders14–210–7
Overs–unders, last 1010–07–3

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

TOR 6–10 BOS in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 16.