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Boston Bruins at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast

FinalESPN+, NESN

Away

Bruins

10-7-0

5–3

at

Home

Maple Leafs

8-6-1

BOS 36%TOR 64%

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Scotiabank Arena · ESPN+, NESN

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.

TOR favored BOS favored8 scoring plays
P1P2P3TOR50%BOS

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Bruins
Maple Leafs

Scoring summary

  • P316:58Fraser Minten Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Kastelic (2)5–3
  • P216:51John Tavares Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: William Nylander (15), Oliver Ekman-Larsson (9)4–3
  • P24:41David Pastrnak Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Hampus Lindholm (3), Morgan Geekie (4)4–2
  • P22:15Michael Eyssimont Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Marat Khusnutdinov (2), Mason Lohrei (7)3–2
  • P113:03Matias Maccelli Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Nicolas Roy (3), Morgan Rielly (10)2–2
  • P13:50Viktor Arvidsson Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–1
  • P13:30Morgan Geekie Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Mason Lohrei (6)1–1
  • P13:12Nicholas Robertson Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Max Domi (2), Morgan Rielly (9)0–1

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P13:50Viktor Arvidsson Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: noneBOS 2 – 1 TOR · BOS 36% → 51% +15
  2. P113:03Matias Maccelli Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Nicolas Roy (3), Morgan Rielly (10)BOS 2 – 2 TOR · TOR 46% → 63% +16
  3. P22:15Michael Eyssimont Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Marat Khusnutdinov (2), Mason Lohrei (7)BOS 3 – 2 TOR · BOS 39% → 57% +18
  4. P24:41David Pastrnak Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Hampus Lindholm (3), Morgan Geekie (4)BOS 4 – 2 TOR · BOS 58% → 75% +17
  5. P216:51John Tavares Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: William Nylander (15), Oliver Ekman-Larsson (9)BOS 4 – 3 TOR · TOR 17% → 36% +19

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Maple Leafs 64%

SolidMiss
BOS 36%TOR 64%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.

Market
TOR 64%
ML BOS +170 / TOR -200
Pre-line forecast
TOR 63%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
TOR 63%
Ratings vs. market
−1.2 pts
TOR: Elo 63.1%, market 64.3%
Fair odds
TOR -180
BOS +180 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
BOS 2.3 – 3.2 TOR
Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorBOSTORWhy
Team rating14811533Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies0+7BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · TOR: Anthony Stolarz: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsTOR +93 EloTOR 63.1%
Market-implied ratingsTOR 63.5%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastTOR 63.4%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastTOR 64.3%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
Boston Bruins and Toronto Maple Leafs compared, with each team's league rank
BOSStatTOR
13th of 323.3Goals scored3.72nd of 32
22nd of 323.3Goals allowed3.628th of 32
17th of 32−0.1Margin+0.114th of 32
29th of 3247.0%Shot share49.2%19th of 32
17th of 3289.2%Save percentage88.3%29th of 32
4th of 326–4Last 106–44th of 32
24th of 322–4Road vs home7–37th of 32
5th of 321507Opponent Elo148729th of 32
23rd of 321481Elo rating15338th of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

BruinsMaple Leafs
145015001550league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonBOSTOR
Puck line12–44–10
Last 108–22–8
Favorite1–24–9
Underdog11–20–1
Overs–unders9–712–2
Overs–unders, last 106–49–1

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

BOS 9–6 TOR in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 15.