Carolina Hurricanes at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Logan StankovenGoals1
- Nikolaj EhlersAssists2
- Logan StankovenPoints2
Maple Leafs- William NylanderGoals2
- Matthew KniesAssists2
- William NylanderPoints2
Scoring summary
- P312:13Logan Stankoven Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: K'Andre Miller (6), Nikolaj Ehlers (7)5–4
- P33:20Taylor Hall Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jackson Blake (7), Logan Stankoven (4)4–4
- P216:51Sean Walker Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: William Carrier (3)3–4
- P211:03Auston Matthews Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake McCabe (7), Matthew Knies (15)2–4
- P119:01William Nylander Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: John Tavares (12), Auston Matthews (5)2–3
- P115:31John Tavares Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Bobby McMann (3), Nicholas Robertson (5)2–2
- P114:31Seth Jarvis Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrei Svechnikov (3), Alexander Nikishin (6)2–1
- P18:34Sebastian Aho Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (6), K'Andre Miller (5)1–1
- P15:00William Nylander Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Matthew Knies (14), Morgan Rielly (11)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P119:01William Nylander Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: John Tavares (12), Auston Matthews (5)CAR 2 – 3 TOR · TOR 46% → 63% +17TOR 46% → 63%+17 pts
- P211:03Auston Matthews Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake McCabe (7), Matthew Knies (15)CAR 2 – 4 TOR · TOR 67% → 83% +16TOR 67% → 83%+16 pts
- P216:51Sean Walker Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: William Carrier (3)CAR 3 – 4 TOR · CAR 14% → 31% +17CAR 14% → 31%+17 pts
- P33:20Taylor Hall Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jackson Blake (7), Logan Stankoven (4)CAR 4 – 4 TOR · CAR 27% → 53% +26CAR 27% → 53%+26 pts
- P312:13Logan Stankoven Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: K'Andre Miller (6), Nikolaj Ehlers (7)CAR 5 – 4 TOR · CAR 52% → 86% +34CAR 52% → 86%+34 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 55%
- ML CAR -135 / TOR +115
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.3 pts
- CAR: Elo 50.9%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- CAR -124
- TOR +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 3.4 – 3.1 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1552 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | TOR and CAR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −1 | −18 | CAR: Brandon Bussi: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · TOR: Dennis Hildeby: team allows 0.46 more goals than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +6 Elo | CAR 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 51.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 323.9 | Goals scored | 3.75th of 32 |
| 7th of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 3.730th of 32 |
| 2nd of 32+1.1 | Margin | 0.015th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3254.6% | Shot share | 48.9%19th of 32 |
| 9th of 3290.5% | Save percentage | 88.2%28th of 32 |
| 6th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 5th of 325–3 | Road vs home | 7–49th of 32 |
| 22nd of 321496 | Opponent Elo | 148531st of 32 |
| 3rd of 321552 | Elo rating | 15289th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CAR |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 8–6 | 4–11 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 6–6 | 4–10 |
| Underdog | 2–0 | 0–1 |
| Overs–unders | 8–6 | 13–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 10–0 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CAR 4–2 TOR in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.