Los Angeles Kings at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Quinton ByfieldGoals1
- Drew DoughtyAssists2
- Quinton ByfieldPoints2
Maple Leafs- John TavaresGoals2
- Matthew KniesAssists2
- John TavaresPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT0:35Quinton Byfield Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Drew Doughty (6), Adrian Kempe (13)4–3
- P313:10Alex Laferriere Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Brandt Clarke (7), Brian Dumoulin (2)3–3
- P217:16John Tavares Goal (11) Backhand, assists: William Nylander (17), Matthew Knies (17)2–3
- P215:41Kevin Fiala Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Quinton Byfield (12), Cody Ceci (4)2–2
- P26:51Warren Foegele Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Drew Doughty (5), Mikey Anderson (3)1–2
- P116:39John Tavares Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson (10), Matthew Knies (16)0–2
- P18:06Bobby McMann Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P26:51Warren Foegele Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Drew Doughty (5), Mikey Anderson (3)LA 1 – 2 TOR · LA 19% → 35% +16LA 19% → 35%+16 pts
- P215:41Kevin Fiala Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Quinton Byfield (12), Cody Ceci (4)LA 2 – 2 TOR · LA 31% → 53% +22LA 31% → 53%+22 pts
- P217:16John Tavares Goal (11) Backhand, assists: William Nylander (17), Matthew Knies (17)LA 2 – 3 TOR · TOR 47% → 70% +23TOR 47% → 70%+23 pts
- P313:10Alex Laferriere Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Brandt Clarke (7), Brian Dumoulin (2)LA 3 – 3 TOR · LA 15% → 52% +37LA 15% → 52%+37 pts
- OT0:35Quinton Byfield Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Drew Doughty (6), Adrian Kempe (13)LA 4 – 3 TOR · LA 51% → 92% +40LA 51% → 92%+40 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- LA 55%
- ML LA -135 / TOR +115
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.1 pts
- LA: Elo 49.2%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- LA -124
- TOR +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LA 2.9 – 2.6 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LA | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | −22 | LA: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · TOR: Dennis Hildeby: team allows 0.56 more goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +6 Elo | TOR 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 50.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LA 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| LA | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.64th of 32 |
| 14th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.831st of 32 |
| 19th of 32−0.1 | Margin | −0.222nd of 32 |
| 9th of 3251.5% | Shot share | 47.8%25th of 32 |
| 17th of 3289.8% | Save percentage | 88.1%27th of 32 |
| 6th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Road vs home | 7–512th of 32 |
| 7th of 321506 | Opponent Elo | 148829th of 32 |
| 9th of 321524 | Elo rating | 152111th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LA |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 8–9 | 5–12 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 3–7 | 4–11 |
| Underdog | 5–2 | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 8–9 | 15–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 10–0 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LA 1–3 TOR in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.