Los Angeles Kings at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Joel EdmundsonGoals1
- Joel EdmundsonAssists1
- Joel EdmundsonPoints2
Canadiens- Josh AndersonGoals1
- Jake EvansAssists1
- Josh AndersonPoints1
Scoring summary
- P315:32Warren Foegele Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Phillip Danault (4)5–1
- P311:08Joel Armia Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: none4–1
- P25:22Kevin Fiala Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Laferriere (5), Quinton Byfield (11)3–1
- P24:17Quinton Byfield Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Joel Edmundson (7), Adrian Kempe (12)2–1
- P21:17Joel Edmundson Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Brandt Clarke (6), Anze Kopitar (7)1–1
- P119:17Josh Anderson Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Lane Hutson (13), Jake Evans (2)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P119:17Josh Anderson Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Lane Hutson (13), Jake Evans (2)LA 0 – 1 MTL · MTL 47% → 65% +17MTL 47% → 65%+17 pts
- P21:17Joel Edmundson Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Brandt Clarke (6), Anze Kopitar (7)LA 1 – 1 MTL · LA 35% → 53% +18LA 35% → 53%+18 pts
- P24:17Quinton Byfield Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Joel Edmundson (7), Adrian Kempe (12)LA 2 – 1 MTL · LA 53% → 70% +18LA 53% → 70%+18 pts
- P25:22Kevin Fiala Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Laferriere (5), Quinton Byfield (11)LA 3 – 1 MTL · LA 71% → 85% +14LA 71% → 85%+14 pts
- P311:08Joel Armia Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: noneLA 4 – 1 MTL · LA 97% → >99% +2LA 97% → >99%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- LA 53%
- ML LA -125 / MTL +105
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.3 pts
- LA: Elo 48.9%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- LA -114
- MTL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LA 2.8 – 2.7 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LA | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | −6 | LA: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · MTL: Sam Montembeault: team allows 0.15 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MTL +8 Elo | MTL 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 50.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MTL 50.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LA 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| LA | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 3.84th of 32 |
| 17th of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.116th of 32 |
| 25th of 32−0.4 | Margin | +0.75th of 32 |
| 10th of 3251.4% | Shot share | 47.8%25th of 32 |
| 18th of 3289.6% | Save percentage | 89.1%24th of 32 |
| 5th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 32 |
| 2nd of 326–3 | Road vs home | 5–25th of 32 |
| 6th of 321506 | Opponent Elo | 148731st of 32 |
| 10th of 321519 | Elo rating | 150016th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LA |  MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 7–9 | 5–10 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–7 | 1–9 |
| Underdog | 5–2 | 4–1 |
| Overs–unders | 7–9 | 11–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 9–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LA 4–0 MTL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.