Los Angeles Kings at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Kevin FialaGoals1
- Kevin FialaAssists1
- Kevin FialaPoints2
Penguins- Anthony ManthaGoals1
- Evgeni MalkinAssists1
- Anthony ManthaPoints1
Scoring summary
- P311:52Kevin Fiala Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Drew Doughty (4), Alex Laferriere (4)3–2
- P34:49Corey Perry Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Cody Ceci (3), Trevor Moore (2)2–2
- P27:48Anthony Mantha Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Kris Letang (7), Ville Koivunen (2)1–2
- P114:58Anze Kopitar Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Kevin Fiala (5), Corey Perry (4)1–1
- P18:48Thomas Novak Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Evgeni Malkin (18), Parker Wotherspoon (5)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:48Thomas Novak Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Evgeni Malkin (18), Parker Wotherspoon (5)LA 0 – 1 PIT · PIT 40% → 56% +16PIT 40% → 56%+16 pts
- P114:58Anze Kopitar Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Kevin Fiala (5), Corey Perry (4)LA 1 – 1 PIT · LA 42% → 59% +17LA 42% → 59%+17 pts
- P27:48Anthony Mantha Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Kris Letang (7), Ville Koivunen (2)LA 1 – 2 PIT · PIT 42% → 62% +20PIT 42% → 62%+20 pts
- P34:49Corey Perry Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Cody Ceci (3), Trevor Moore (2)LA 2 – 2 PIT · LA 28% → 55% +28LA 28% → 55%+28 pts
- P311:52Kevin Fiala Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Drew Doughty (4), Alex Laferriere (4)LA 3 – 2 PIT · LA 54% → 86% +32LA 54% → 86%+32 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- LA 60%
- ML LA -165 / PIT +145
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.1 pts
- LA: Elo 53.3%, market 60.4%
- Fair odds
- LA -153
- PIT +153 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LA 3.0 – 2.5 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LA | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | PIT on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +3 | — | LA: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · PIT: Starter not announced |
| Elo ratings | LA +23 Elo | LA 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 54.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 54.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LA 60.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| LA | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 3.48th of 32 |
| 19th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 2.89th of 32 |
| 26th of 32−0.5 | Margin | +0.67th of 32 |
| 10th of 3251.8% | Shot share | 48.5%20th of 32 |
| 20th of 3289.2% | Save percentage | 91.4%4th of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 4th of 325–3 | Road vs home | 4–28th of 32 |
| 5th of 321508 | Opponent Elo | 149819th of 32 |
| 11th of 321517 | Elo rating | 149120th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LA |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 7–8 | 13–3 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 2–6 | 1–1 |
| Underdog | 5–2 | 12–2 |
| Overs–unders | 7–8 | 9–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LA 1–4 PIT in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 5.