Edmonton Oilers at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Oilers- Jack RoslovicGoals1
- Leon DraisaitlAssists1
- Jack RoslovicPoints1
Sabres- Noah OstlundGoals2
- Rasmus DahlinAssists2
- Noah OstlundPoints2
Scoring summary
- P317:37Tage Thompson Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–5
- P37:55Noah Ostlund Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Dunne (1)1–4
- P29:43Beck Malenstyn Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (12), Mattias Samuelsson (5)1–3
- P28:41Bowen Byram Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyson Kozak (1), Peyton Krebs (5)1–2
- P24:29Jack Roslovic Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (11), Andrew Mangiapane (3)1–1
- P119:03Noah Ostlund Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Isak Rosen (3), Rasmus Dahlin (11)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P119:03Noah Ostlund Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Isak Rosen (3), Rasmus Dahlin (11)EDM 0 – 1 BUF · BUF 43% → 61% +17BUF 43% → 61%+17 pts
- P24:29Jack Roslovic Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (11), Andrew Mangiapane (3)EDM 1 – 1 BUF · EDM 37% → 56% +19EDM 37% → 56%+19 pts
- P28:41Bowen Byram Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyson Kozak (1), Peyton Krebs (5)EDM 1 – 2 BUF · BUF 44% → 64% +20BUF 44% → 64%+20 pts
- P29:43Beck Malenstyn Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (12), Mattias Samuelsson (5)EDM 1 – 3 BUF · BUF 64% → 81% +17BUF 64% → 81%+17 pts
- P37:55Noah Ostlund Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Dunne (1)EDM 1 – 4 BUF · BUF 94% → >99% +5BUF 94% → >99%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Oilers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- EDM 58%
- ML EDM -150 / BUF +130
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.2 pts
- EDM: Elo 54.8%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- EDM -138
- BUF +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- EDM 3.5 – 3.0 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | EDM | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1539 | 1470 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | −2 | EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · BUF: Colten Ellis: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +33 Elo | EDM 54.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 55.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | EDM 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| EDM | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 2.823rd of 32 |
| 28th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 3.630th of 32 |
| 28th of 32−0.4 | Margin | −0.729th of 32 |
| 8th of 3252.4% | Shot share | 46.7%29th of 32 |
| 31st of 3287.2% | Save percentage | 90.1%13th of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 2–830th of 32 |
| 27th of 324–8 | Road vs home | 5–517th of 32 |
| 20th of 321498 | Opponent Elo | 15151st of 32 |
| 6th of 321539 | Elo rating | 147027th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  EDM |  BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 6–14 | 7–11 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 3–13 | 1–4 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 6–7 |
| Overs–unders | 12–8 | 11–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
EDM 2–2 BUF in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.