Edmonton Oilers at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Oilers- Connor McDavidGoals2
- Leon DraisaitlAssists2
- Connor McDavidPoints3
Hurricanes- Nikolaj EhlersGoals1
- Taylor HallAssists1
- Jordan StaalPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT0:19Leon Draisaitl Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (21), Evan Bouchard (13)4–3
- P36:45Jordan Staal Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: none3–3
- P35:46Connor McDavid Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (10), Zach Hyman (1)3–2
- P21:41Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Jackson Blake (9), Logan Stankoven (5)2–2
- P115:39Eric Robinson Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Shayne Gostisbehere (11), Taylor Hall (6)2–1
- P16:30Connor McDavid Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Roslovic (8), Leon Draisaitl (9)2–0
- P13:47Jack Roslovic Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: none1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:47Jack Roslovic Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: noneEDM 1 – 0 CAR · EDM 47% → 62% +15EDM 47% → 62%+15 pts
- P21:41Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Jackson Blake (9), Logan Stankoven (5)EDM 2 – 2 CAR · CAR 35% → 53% +18CAR 35% → 53%+18 pts
- P35:46Connor McDavid Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (10), Zach Hyman (1)EDM 3 – 2 CAR · EDM 48% → 76% +28EDM 48% → 76%+28 pts
- P36:45Jordan Staal Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: noneEDM 3 – 3 CAR · CAR 23% → 52% +29CAR 23% → 52%+29 pts
- OT0:19Leon Draisaitl Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (21), Evan Bouchard (13)EDM 4 – 3 CAR · EDM 49% → 90% +41EDM 49% → 90%+41 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 53%
- ML EDM +105 / CAR -125
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.1 pts
- CAR: Elo 53.2%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- CAR -114
- EDM +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- EDM 3.2 – 3.3 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | EDM | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1536 | 1550 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | CAR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −3 | 0 | EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · CAR: Frederik Andersen: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +22 Elo | CAR 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 56.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 55.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| EDM | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.82nd of 32 |
| 27th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 2.98th of 32 |
| 27th of 32−0.5 | Margin | +0.92nd of 32 |
| 6th of 3253.2% | Shot share | 56.3%2nd of 32 |
| 31st of 3286.9% | Save percentage | 89.6%19th of 32 |
| 23rd of 324–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 28th of 323–8 | Road vs home | 6–23rd of 32 |
| 23rd of 321496 | Opponent Elo | 150019th of 32 |
| 6th of 321536 | Elo rating | 15503rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  EDM |  CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 5–14 | 8–9 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 3–13 | 6–9 |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 2–0 |
| Overs–unders | 11–8 | 10–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
EDM 2–2 CAR in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.