Washington Capitals at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Capitals- Alex OvechkinGoals1
- Alex OvechkinAssists1
- Alex OvechkinPoints2
Hurricanes- Nikolaj EhlersGoals1
- Shayne GostisbehereAssists1
- Nikolaj EhlersPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:29Alex Ovechkin Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony Beauvillier (2)4–1
- P35:46Jakob Chychrun Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Leonard (5), John Carlson (9)3–1
- P213:56Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Jackson Blake (8), Shayne Gostisbehere (7)2–1
- P25:59Dylan Strome Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Ovechkin (8), John Carlson (8)2–0
- P15:42Brandon Duhaime Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Ethen Frank (3), Nic Dowd (4)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:42Brandon Duhaime Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Ethen Frank (3), Nic Dowd (4)WSH 1 – 0 CAR · WSH 43% → 58% +15WSH 43% → 58%+15 pts
- P25:59Dylan Strome Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Ovechkin (8), John Carlson (8)WSH 2 – 0 CAR · WSH 64% → 80% +16WSH 64% → 80%+16 pts
- P213:56Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Jackson Blake (8), Shayne Gostisbehere (7)WSH 2 – 1 CAR · CAR 16% → 33% +17CAR 16% → 33%+17 pts
- P35:46Jakob Chychrun Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Leonard (5), John Carlson (9)WSH 3 – 1 CAR · WSH 75% → 92% +17WSH 75% → 92%+17 pts
- P319:29Alex Ovechkin Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony Beauvillier (2)WSH 4 – 1 CAR · WSH >99% → 100% +0WSH >99% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 57%
- ML WSH +125 / CAR -145
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.0 pts
- CAR: Elo 59.1%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- CAR -133
- WSH +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.0 – 3.5 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1554 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +8 | 0 | WSH: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.20 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · CAR: Frederik Andersen: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +64 Elo | CAR 59.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 61.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 61.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WSH | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 3.93rd of 32 |
| 2nd of 322.5 | Goals allowed | 2.88th of 32 |
| 10th of 32+0.3 | Margin | +1.12nd of 32 |
| 5th of 3253.7% | Shot share | 55.7%2nd of 32 |
| 5th of 3291.0% | Save percentage | 89.9%14th of 32 |
| 28th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 32 |
| 20th of 323–4 | Road vs home | 5–12nd of 32 |
| 22nd of 321496 | Opponent Elo | 149921st of 32 |
| 11th of 321518 | Elo rating | 15542nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 9–6 | 8–7 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–6 | 6–7 |
| Underdog | 4–0 | 2–0 |
| Overs–unders | 7–8 | 9–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 5–8 CAR in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 13.
- May 15CAR 3 @ WSH 1PlayoffsPicked CAR 59%Hit
- May 12WSH 2 @ CAR 5PlayoffsPicked CAR 68%Hit
- May 10WSH 0 @ CAR 4PlayoffsPicked CAR 68%Hit
- May 8CAR 1 @ WSH 3PlayoffsPicked CAR 58%Miss
- May 6CAR 2 @ WSH 1PlayoffsPicked CAR 56%Hit
- Apr 10CAR 4 @ WSH 5Picked CAR 59%Miss
- Apr 2WSH 1 @ CAR 5Picked CAR 66%Hit
- Dec 20CAR 1 @ WSH 3Picked CAR 59%Miss