Vancouver Canucks at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canucks- Elias PetterssonGoals1
- Elias PetterssonAssists1
- Elias PetterssonPoints2
Hurricanes- Andrei SvechnikovGoals2
- Shayne GostisbehereAssists3
- Andrei SvechnikovPoints3
Scoring summary
- OT4:29Sebastian Aho Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Shayne Gostisbehere (10)3–4
- P36:26Taylor Hall Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Shayne Gostisbehere (9), Andrei Svechnikov (4)3–3
- P23:13Conor Garland Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Brock Boeser (5), Elias Pettersson (11)3–2
- P19:14Elias Pettersson Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: none2–2
- P15:14Andrei Svechnikov Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Shayne Gostisbehere (8), Nikolaj Ehlers (8)1–2
- P14:20Andrei Svechnikov Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (11), Seth Jarvis (6)1–1
- P12:45Max Sasson Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Mackenzie MacEachern (2), Linus Karlsson (4)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:45Max Sasson Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Mackenzie MacEachern (2), Linus Karlsson (4)VAN 1 – 0 CAR · VAN 29% → 43% +14VAN 29% → 43%+14 pts
- P14:20Andrei Svechnikov Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (11), Seth Jarvis (6)VAN 1 – 1 CAR · CAR 57% → 71% +14CAR 57% → 71%+14 pts
- P23:13Conor Garland Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Brock Boeser (5), Elias Pettersson (11)VAN 3 – 2 CAR · VAN 33% → 51% +18VAN 33% → 51%+18 pts
- P36:26Taylor Hall Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Shayne Gostisbehere (9), Andrei Svechnikov (4)VAN 3 – 3 CAR · CAR 31% → 61% +30CAR 31% → 61%+30 pts
- OT4:29Sebastian Aho Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Shayne Gostisbehere (10)VAN 3 – 4 CAR · CAR 52% → >99% +48CAR 52% → >99%+48 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 72%
- ML VAN +240 / CAR -290
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.8 pts
- CAR: Elo 64.8%, market 71.7%
- Fair odds
- CAR -253
- VAN +253 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VAN 2.6 – 3.9 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VAN | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1549 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −10 | −5 | VAN: Kevin Lankinen: team allows 0.26 more goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · CAR: Pyotr Kochetkov: team allows 0.13 more goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +106 Elo | CAR 64.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 69.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 68.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 71.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VAN | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.83rd of 32 |
| 27th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 2.98th of 32 |
| 28th of 32−0.6 | Margin | +0.92nd of 32 |
| 26th of 3247.7% | Shot share | 55.5%3rd of 32 |
| 22nd of 3289.4% | Save percentage | 89.9%16th of 32 |
| 23rd of 324–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 7th of 325–4 | Road vs home | 5–27th of 32 |
| 19th of 321498 | Opponent Elo | 150117th of 32 |
| 23rd of 321482 | Elo rating | 15494th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VAN |  CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 10–8 | 8–8 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–4 | 6–8 |
| Underdog | 9–4 | 2–0 |
| Overs–unders | 13–5 | 9–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 9–1 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VAN 2–2 CAR in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.