Calgary Flames at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames- Joel FarabeeGoals2
- Yegor SharangovichAssists2
- Joel FarabeePoints2
Sabres- Mattias SamuelssonGoals1
- Mattias SamuelssonAssists1
- Mattias SamuelssonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P317:49Matt Coronato Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Jonathan Huberdeau (7), Morgan Frost (8)6–2
- P39:50Joel Farabee Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Andersson (7), Nazem Kadri (10)5–2
- P37:34Mikael Backlund Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Rasmus Andersson (6)4–2
- P32:02Morgan Frost Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Huberdeau (6), Matt Coronato (5)3–2
- P215:57Tage Thompson Goal (10) Slap Shot, assists: Mattias Samuelsson (6), Rasmus Dahlin (13)2–2
- P210:21Mattias Samuelsson Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: none2–1
- P112:04Joel Farabee Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Nazem Kadri (9), Yegor Sharangovich (4)2–0
- P15:58Rasmus Andersson Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Yegor Sharangovich (3), Kevin Bahl (3)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:58Rasmus Andersson Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Yegor Sharangovich (3), Kevin Bahl (3)CGY 1 – 0 BUF · CGY 42% → 58% +15CGY 42% → 58%+15 pts
- P210:21Mattias Samuelsson Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: noneCGY 2 – 1 BUF · BUF 18% → 35% +17BUF 18% → 35%+17 pts
- P215:57Tage Thompson Goal (10) Slap Shot, assists: Mattias Samuelsson (6), Rasmus Dahlin (13)CGY 2 – 2 BUF · BUF 33% → 55% +22BUF 33% → 55%+22 pts
- P32:02Morgan Frost Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Huberdeau (6), Matt Coronato (5)CGY 3 – 2 BUF · CGY 46% → 71% +26CGY 46% → 71%+26 pts
- P37:34Mikael Backlund Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Rasmus Andersson (6)CGY 4 – 2 BUF · CGY 76% → 93% +17CGY 76% → 93%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Sabres 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- BUF 58%
- ML CGY +130 / BUF -150
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.7 pts
- BUF: Elo 64.7%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- BUF -138
- CGY +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 3.0 – 3.5 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1460 | 1475 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | CGY on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −18 | +7 | CGY: Devin Cooley: team allows 0.44 more goals than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · BUF: Colten Ellis: team allows 0.18 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +105 Elo | BUF 64.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 57.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 59.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BUF 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 32nd of 322.1 | Goals scored | 2.924th of 32 |
| 20th of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.425th of 32 |
| 30th of 32−1.0 | Margin | −0.527th of 32 |
| 12th of 3250.9% | Shot share | 46.7%29th of 32 |
| 13th of 3290.0% | Save percentage | 90.4%8th of 32 |
| 28th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 3–728th of 32 |
| 29th of 322–10 | Road vs home | 6–516th of 32 |
| 20th of 321497 | Opponent Elo | 15151st of 32 |
| 29th of 321460 | Elo rating | 147527th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CGY |  BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 11–10 | 8–11 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 2–2 | 1–4 |
| Underdog | 9–8 | 7–7 |
| Overs–unders | 13–8 | 11–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CGY 2–2 BUF in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.