Minnesota Wild at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Matt BoldyGoals2
- Brock FaberAssists2
- Matt BoldyPoints3
PenguinsScoring summary
- P217:46Matt Boldy Goal (13) Tip-In, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (14)5–0
- P21:09Kirill Kaprizov Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Jake Middleton (3), Mats Zuccarello (6)4–0
- P111:42Marcus Johansson Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Jonas Brodin (4), Brock Faber (8)3–0
- P19:39Joel Eriksson Ek Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Zeev Buium (8), Matt Boldy (12)2–0
- P13:57Matt Boldy Goal (12) Backhand, assists: Brock Faber (7), Joel Eriksson Ek (11)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:57Matt Boldy Goal (12) Backhand, assists: Brock Faber (7), Joel Eriksson Ek (11)MIN 1 – 0 PIT · MIN 47% → 62% +15MIN 47% → 62%+15 pts
- P19:39Joel Eriksson Ek Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Zeev Buium (8), Matt Boldy (12)MIN 2 – 0 PIT · MIN 63% → 76% +14MIN 63% → 76%+14 pts
- P111:42Marcus Johansson Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Jonas Brodin (4), Brock Faber (8)MIN 3 – 0 PIT · MIN 77% → 87% +10MIN 77% → 87%+10 pts
- P21:09Kirill Kaprizov Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Jake Middleton (3), Mats Zuccarello (6)MIN 4 – 0 PIT · MIN 90% → 96% +6MIN 90% → 96%+6 pts
- P217:46Matt Boldy Goal (13) Tip-In, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (14)MIN 5 – 0 PIT · MIN >99% → >99% +1MIN >99% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Penguins 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 53%
- ML MIN +105 / PIT -125
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.8 pts
- PIT: Elo 55.1%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- PIT -114
- MIN +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 2.7 – 2.8 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | +4 | MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · PIT: Arturs Silovs: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +35 Elo | PIT 55.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 52.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.312th of 32 |
| 16th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 2.63rd of 32 |
| 22nd of 32−0.2 | Margin | +0.64th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3248.3% | Shot share | 48.4%21st of 32 |
| 6th of 3290.7% | Save percentage | 91.7%3rd of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 25th of 323–5 | Road vs home | 4–313th of 32 |
| 21st of 321495 | Opponent Elo | 149523rd of 32 |
| 17th of 321494 | Elo rating | 149119th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 12–9 | 15–4 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 3–6 | 2–2 |
| Underdog | 9–3 | 13–2 |
| Overs–unders | 11–10 | 9–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 2–3 PIT in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.