Anaheim Ducks at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks
Wild- Matt BoldyGoals1
- Matt BoldyAssists1
- Matt BoldyPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:05Matt Boldy Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Middleton (2), Joel Eriksson Ek (10)0–2
- P20:55Marcus Johansson Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Matt Boldy (10), Ryan Hartman (3)0–1
Turning points
The 2 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P20:55Marcus Johansson Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Matt Boldy (10), Ryan Hartman (3)ANA 0 – 1 MIN · MIN 52% → 69% +17MIN 52% → 69%+17 pts
- P319:05Matt Boldy Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Middleton (2), Joel Eriksson Ek (10)ANA 0 – 2 MIN · MIN >99% → >99% +0MIN >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Wild 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 52%
- ML ANA +100 / MIN -120
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.5 pts
- MIN: Elo 56.7%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- MIN -109
- ANA +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 3.2 – 3.3 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −6 | +2 | ANA: Petr Mrazek: team allows 0.15 more goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · MIN: Jesper Wallstedt: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +47 Elo | MIN 56.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 56.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 56.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 323.9 | Goals scored | 2.826th of 32 |
| 23rd of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.321st of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+0.6 | Margin | −0.426th of 32 |
| 16th of 3249.9% | Shot share | 49.0%19th of 32 |
| 19th of 3289.6% | Save percentage | 89.9%14th of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 32 |
| 11th of 326–5 | Road vs home | 4–624th of 32 |
| 7th of 321507 | Opponent Elo | 149130th of 32 |
| 23rd of 321482 | Elo rating | 148622nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ANA |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 10–7 | 9–9 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–3 | 2–6 |
| Underdog | 9–4 | 7–3 |
| Overs–unders | 10–7 | 10–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ANA 1–5 MIN in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.