Vegas Golden Knights at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights- Pavel DorofeyevGoals1
- Shea TheodoreAssists1
- Reilly SmithPoints1
Wild- Joel Eriksson EkGoals1
- Mats ZuccarelloAssists2
- Mats ZuccarelloPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT4:50Kirill Kaprizov Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Mats Zuccarello (4), Matt Boldy (11)2–3
- P36:35Reilly Smith Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Shea Theodore (7), Ivan Barbashev (10)2–2
- P29:05Yakov Trenin Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Danila Yurov (1), Marcus Foligno (2)1–2
- P115:14Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (16), Tomas Hertl (7)1–1
- P14:49Joel Eriksson Ek Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Mats Zuccarello (3), Marcus Johansson (10)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:49Joel Eriksson Ek Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Mats Zuccarello (3), Marcus Johansson (10)VGK 0 – 1 MIN · MIN 47% → 62% +15MIN 47% → 62%+15 pts
- P115:14Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (16), Tomas Hertl (7)VGK 1 – 1 MIN · VGK 36% → 53% +17VGK 36% → 53%+17 pts
- P29:05Yakov Trenin Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Danila Yurov (1), Marcus Foligno (2)VGK 1 – 2 MIN · MIN 48% → 67% +20MIN 48% → 67%+20 pts
- P36:35Reilly Smith Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Shea Theodore (7), Ivan Barbashev (10)VGK 2 – 2 MIN · VGK 23% → 52% +28VGK 23% → 52%+28 pts
- OT4:50Kirill Kaprizov Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Mats Zuccarello (4), Matt Boldy (11)VGK 2 – 3 MIN · MIN 50% → >99% +50MIN 50% → >99%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 53%
- ML VGK -125 / MIN +105
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.2 pts
- VGK: Elo 50.0%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- VGK -114
- MIN +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 3.3 – 3.2 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1530 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | MIN and VGK on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −5 | +1 | VGK: Carl Lindbom: team allows 0.12 more goals than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK 0 Elo | VGK 50.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 50.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 2.826th of 32 |
| 12th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.118th of 32 |
| 9th of 32+0.3 | Margin | −0.325th of 32 |
| 4th of 3254.2% | Shot share | 49.2%19th of 32 |
| 24th of 3289.0% | Save percentage | 90.5%9th of 32 |
| 27th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 32 |
| 10th of 324–3 | Road vs home | 5–622nd of 32 |
| 7th of 321506 | Opponent Elo | 149030th of 32 |
| 7th of 321530 | Elo rating | 148921st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VGK |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 6–11 | 10–9 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 3–10 | 3–6 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 7–3 |
| Overs–unders | 9–8 | 10–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VGK 9–3 MIN in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 12.
- May 1VGK 3 @ MIN 2PlayoffsPicked VGK 60%Hit
- Apr 29MIN 2 @ VGK 3PlayoffsPicked VGK 67%Hit
- Apr 26VGK 4 @ MIN 3PlayoffsPicked VGK 59%Hit
- Apr 24VGK 2 @ MIN 5PlayoffsPicked VGK 59%Miss
- Apr 22MIN 5 @ VGK 2PlayoffsPicked VGK 68%Miss
- Apr 20MIN 2 @ VGK 4PlayoffsPicked VGK 69%Hit
- Mar 25VGK 5 @ MIN 1Picked VGK 67%Hit
- Jan 12MIN 1 @ VGK 4Picked VGK 64%Hit