Vegas Golden Knights at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights- Brandon SaadGoals1
- Reilly SmithAssists2
- Reilly SmithPoints2
Blues- Philip BrobergGoals1
- Robert ThomasAssists1
- Philip BrobergPoints1
Scoring summary
- P315:57Philip Broberg Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (9), Jimmy Snuggerud (6)4–1
- P311:20Tomas Hertl Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Dorofeyev (3)4–0
- P20:36Noah Hanifin Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Zach Whitecloud (2), Reilly Smith (3)3–0
- P114:58Braeden Bowman Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Pavel Dorofeyev (2), Jack Eichel (16)2–0
- P112:52Brandon Saad Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Reilly Smith (2), Brett Howden (2)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:52Brandon Saad Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Reilly Smith (2), Brett Howden (2)VGK 1 – 0 STL · VGK 58% → 73% +15VGK 58% → 73%+15 pts
- P114:58Braeden Bowman Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Pavel Dorofeyev (2), Jack Eichel (16)VGK 2 – 0 STL · VGK 73% → 85% +12VGK 73% → 85%+12 pts
- P20:36Noah Hanifin Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Zach Whitecloud (2), Reilly Smith (3)VGK 3 – 0 STL · VGK 86% → 94% +8VGK 86% → 94%+8 pts
- P311:20Tomas Hertl Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Dorofeyev (3)VGK 4 – 0 STL · VGK >99% → >99% +0VGK >99% → >99%+0 pts
- P315:57Philip Broberg Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (9), Jimmy Snuggerud (6)VGK 4 – 1 STL · STL <1% → <1% +0STL <1% → <1%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 59%
- ML VGK -155 / STL +135
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.8 pts
- VGK: Elo 53.0%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- VGK -143
- STL +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 3.0 – 2.5 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | STL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −10 | −7 | VGK: Akira Schmid: team allows 0.25 more goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) · STL: Joel Hofer: team allows 0.18 more goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +21 Elo | VGK 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 59.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 57.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 58.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 2.924th of 32 |
| 17th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.932nd of 32 |
| 14th of 32+0.1 | Margin | −1.132nd of 32 |
| 4th of 3253.9% | Shot share | 48.4%22nd of 32 |
| 24th of 3288.6% | Save percentage | 86.7%32nd of 32 |
| 27th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 32 |
| 11th of 323–3 | Road vs home | 3–830th of 32 |
| 4th of 321508 | Opponent Elo | 149129th of 32 |
| 9th of 321526 | Elo rating | 149716th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VGK |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 5–11 | 6–12 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 2–10 | 1–11 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 5–1 |
| Overs–unders | 9–7 | 11–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VGK 4–2 STL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.