Philadelphia Flyers at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers- Christian DvorakGoals2
- Owen TippettAssists3
- Owen TippettPoints4
Blues- Jordan KyrouGoals1
- Cam FowlerAssists2
- Jordan KyrouPoints2
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Trevor Zegras Goal Backhand1–0
- P310:29Owen Tippett Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Trevor Zegras (13), Noah Juulsen (2)5–5
- P37:53Christian Dvorak Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Owen Tippett (4)4–5
- P34:56Robert Thomas Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Jimmy Snuggerud (5)3–5
- P30:40Dylan Holloway Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Kyrou (5), Cam Fowler (8)3–4
- P218:24Trevor Zegras Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Emil Andrae (2), Owen Tippett (3)3–3
- P27:17Christian Dvorak Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Owen Tippett (2), Emil Andrae (1)2–3
- P26:54Justin Faulk Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Cam Fowler (7), Oskar Sundqvist (8)1–3
- P19:42Jimmy Snuggerud Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (8)1–2
- P18:18Trevor Zegras Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Christian Dvorak (7), Travis Sanheim (5)1–1
- P11:19Jordan Kyrou Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:42Jimmy Snuggerud Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (8)PHI 1 – 2 STL · STL 56% → 71% +15STL 56% → 71%+15 pts
- P218:24Trevor Zegras Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Emil Andrae (2), Owen Tippett (3)PHI 3 – 3 STL · PHI 24% → 46% +22PHI 24% → 46%+22 pts
- P30:40Dylan Holloway Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Kyrou (5), Cam Fowler (8)PHI 3 – 4 STL · STL 54% → 77% +23STL 54% → 77%+23 pts
- P34:56Robert Thomas Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Jimmy Snuggerud (5)PHI 3 – 5 STL · STL 79% → 94% +15STL 79% → 94%+15 pts
- P310:29Owen Tippett Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Trevor Zegras (13), Noah Juulsen (2)PHI 5 – 5 STL · PHI 16% → 48% +31PHI 16% → 48%+31 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blues 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- STL 56%
- ML PHI +120 / STL -140
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.8 pts
- STL: Elo 61.0%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- STL -128
- PHI +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 2.6 – 2.9 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1462 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −4 | +1 | PHI: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.09 more goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +78 Elo | STL 61.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 59.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 59.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 2.826th of 32 |
| 3rd of 322.6 | Goals allowed | 3.831st of 32 |
| 11th of 32+0.2 | Margin | −1.132nd of 32 |
| 19th of 3249.1% | Shot share | 49.1%18th of 32 |
| 9th of 3290.4% | Save percentage | 86.9%31st of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 32 |
| 22nd of 322–3 | Road vs home | 3–730th of 32 |
| 12th of 321503 | Opponent Elo | 149325th of 32 |
| 29th of 321462 | Elo rating | 150016th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 10–6 | 6–11 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 2–4 | 1–10 |
| Underdog | 8–2 | 5–1 |
| Overs–unders | 7–9 | 10–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 3–1 STL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.