Florida Panthers at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Brad MarchandGoals1
- Donovan SebrangoAssists2
- Brad MarchandPoints2
Golden Knights- Tomas HertlGoals1
- Shea TheodoreAssists1
- Tomas HertlPoints1
Scoring summary
- P39:04Ivan Barbashev Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Brayden McNabb (1), Mitch Marner (15)3–2
- P34:54Sam Reinhart Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Seth Jones (7), Brad Marchand (7)3–1
- P31:25Tomas Hertl Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Shea Theodore (6)2–1
- P210:54Brad Marchand Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Gustav Forsling (7), Donovan Sebrango (2)2–0
- P114:47Jesper Boqvist Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Donovan Sebrango (1), Jeff Petry (5)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P114:47Jesper Boqvist Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Donovan Sebrango (1), Jeff Petry (5)FLA 1 – 0 VGK · FLA 46% → 63% +17FLA 46% → 63%+17 pts
- P210:54Brad Marchand Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Gustav Forsling (7), Donovan Sebrango (2)FLA 2 – 0 VGK · FLA 67% → 83% +16FLA 67% → 83%+16 pts
- P31:25Tomas Hertl Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Shea Theodore (6)FLA 2 – 1 VGK · VGK 11% → 28% +17VGK 11% → 28%+17 pts
- P34:54Sam Reinhart Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Seth Jones (7), Brad Marchand (7)FLA 3 – 1 VGK · FLA 75% → 92% +17FLA 75% → 92%+17 pts
- P39:04Ivan Barbashev Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Brayden McNabb (1), Mitch Marner (15)FLA 3 – 2 VGK · VGK 5% → 21% +16VGK 5% → 21%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 54%
- ML FLA +110 / VGK -130
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.9 pts
- VGK: Elo 50.3%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- VGK -119
- FLA +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 2.6 – 2.9 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1547 | 1531 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +7 | −10 | FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · VGK: Carl Lindbom: team allows 0.24 more goals than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +2 Elo | VGK 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 52.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 3.313th of 32 |
| 13th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.012th of 32 |
| 25th of 32−0.4 | Margin | +0.310th of 32 |
| 4th of 3254.2% | Shot share | 53.3%6th of 32 |
| 25th of 3288.8% | Save percentage | 89.2%23rd of 32 |
| 21st of 324–6 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 27th of 322–6 | Road vs home | 4–419th of 32 |
| 31st of 321486 | Opponent Elo | 15075th of 32 |
| 4th of 321547 | Elo rating | 15317th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  FLA |  VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 3–12 | 5–9 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–11 | 2–8 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 7–8 | 8–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
FLA 4–1 VGK in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.