New York Islanders at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Islanders- Matthew SchaeferGoals1
- Bo HorvatAssists2
- Matthew SchaeferPoints2
Golden Knights- Reilly SmithGoals1
- Brandon SaadAssists1
- Reilly SmithPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT3:02Jean-Gabriel Pageau Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: none4–3
- P317:23Mathew Barzal Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Matthew Schaefer (8), Jonathan Drouin (11)3–3
- P310:45Reilly Smith Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Brandon Saad (3), Brett Howden (1)2–3
- P38:23Tomas Hertl Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Jeremy Lauzon (4), Jack Eichel (15)2–2
- P218:56Shea Theodore Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Keegan Kolesar (3)2–1
- P117:59Matthew Schaefer Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Jonathan Drouin (10), Bo Horvat (10)2–0
- P114:03Emil Heineman Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Bo Horvat (9), Tony DeAngelo (5)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P218:56Shea Theodore Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Keegan Kolesar (3)NYI 2 – 1 VGK · VGK 15% → 34% +19VGK 15% → 34%+19 pts
- P38:23Tomas Hertl Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Jeremy Lauzon (4), Jack Eichel (15)NYI 2 – 2 VGK · VGK 25% → 56% +31VGK 25% → 56%+31 pts
- P310:45Reilly Smith Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Brandon Saad (3), Brett Howden (1)NYI 2 – 3 VGK · VGK 55% → 86% +30VGK 55% → 86%+30 pts
- P317:23Mathew Barzal Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Matthew Schaefer (8), Jonathan Drouin (11)NYI 3 – 3 VGK · NYI 3% → 47% +44NYI 3% → 47%+44 pts
- OT3:02Jean-Gabriel Pageau Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: noneNYI 4 – 3 VGK · NYI 48% → 97% +50NYI 48% → 97%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 63%
- ML NYI +160 / VGK -190
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.5 pts
- VGK: Elo 61.5%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- VGK -170
- NYI +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 2.9 – 3.6 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1472 | 1529 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | −10 | NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · VGK: Akira Schmid: team allows 0.25 more goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +82 Elo | VGK 61.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 62.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 62.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.216th of 32 |
| 23rd of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.012th of 32 |
| 16th of 320.0 | Margin | +0.211th of 32 |
| 13th of 3250.4% | Shot share | 53.8%4th of 32 |
| 21st of 3289.4% | Save percentage | 88.9%24th of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 32 |
| 11th of 324–4 | Road vs home | 4–523rd of 32 |
| 16th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 15094th of 32 |
| 25th of 321472 | Elo rating | 15298th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYI |  VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 7–9 | 5–10 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–6 | 2–9 |
| Underdog | 6–3 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 11–5 | 8–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYI 2–2 VGK in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.