Nashville Predators at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Predators
Penguins- Blake LizotteGoals1
- Joona KoppanenAssists1
- Sidney CrosbyPoints1
Scoring summary
- P317:12Blake Lizotte Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–4
- P110:13Sidney Crosby Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–3
- P18:08Evgeni Malkin Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Kevin Hayes (1), Anthony Mantha (6)0–2
- P12:19Parker Wotherspoon Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Erik Karlsson (12), Joona Koppanen (1)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:19Parker Wotherspoon Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Erik Karlsson (12), Joona Koppanen (1)NSH 0 – 1 PIT · PIT 53% → 67% +14PIT 53% → 67%+14 pts
- P18:08Evgeni Malkin Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Kevin Hayes (1), Anthony Mantha (6)NSH 0 – 2 PIT · PIT 68% → 81% +13PIT 68% → 81%+13 pts
- P110:13Sidney Crosby Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: noneNSH 0 – 3 PIT · PIT 81% → 90% +9PIT 81% → 90%+9 pts
- P317:12Blake Lizotte Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: noneNSH 0 – 4 PIT · PIT >99% → >99% +0PIT >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Penguins 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 53%
- ML NSH +105 / PIT -125
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.4 pts
- PIT: Elo 55.7%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- PIT -114
- NSH +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NSH 3.2 – 3.3 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NSH | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1446 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | — | Neutral site, no advantage |
| Starting goalies | +1 | — | NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · PIT: Starter not announced |
| Elo ratings | PIT +40 Elo | PIT 55.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 54.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 55.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NSH | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 322.6 | Goals scored | 3.214th of 32 |
| 27th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 2.85th of 32 |
| 30th of 32−0.9 | Margin | +0.48th of 32 |
| 16th of 3249.7% | Shot share | 48.3%23rd of 32 |
| 26th of 3288.3% | Save percentage | 91.4%3rd of 32 |
| 30th of 322–8 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 32 |
| 17th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 149821st of 32 |
| 31st of 321446 | Elo rating | 148621st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NSH |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 9–10 | 14–4 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 1–5 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 8–5 | 13–2 |
| Overs–unders | 8–11 | 9–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NSH 2–3 PIT in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.