Pittsburgh Penguins at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins- Evgeni MalkinGoals1
- Matt DumbaAssists1
- Evgeni MalkinPoints1
Predators- Steven StamkosGoals1
- Brady SkjeiAssists1
- Steven StamkosPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT0:44Steven Stamkos Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Brady Skjei (6)1–2
- P318:50Filip Forsberg Goal (8) Backhand, assists: none1–1
- P213:49Evgeni Malkin Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Mathew Dumba (2)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P213:49Evgeni Malkin Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Mathew Dumba (2)PIT 1 – 0 NSH · PIT 53% → 74% +20PIT 53% → 74%+20 pts
- P318:50Filip Forsberg Goal (8) Backhand, assists: nonePIT 1 – 1 NSH · NSH <1% → 49% +49NSH <1% → 49%+49 pts
- OT0:44Steven Stamkos Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Brady Skjei (6)PIT 1 – 2 NSH · NSH 49% → 91% +42NSH 49% → 91%+42 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Penguins 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 55%
- ML PIT -135 / NSH +115
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.9 pts
- PIT: Elo 57.1%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- PIT -124
- NSH +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.4 – 3.1 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1443 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | — | Neutral site, no advantage |
| Starting goalies | +3 | −1 | PIT: Arturs Silovs: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) · NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +50 Elo | PIT 57.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 51.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 52.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 2.631st of 32 |
| 7th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.630th of 32 |
| 5th of 32+0.5 | Margin | −1.031st of 32 |
| 21st of 3248.9% | Shot share | 49.0%20th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3291.2% | Save percentage | 88.1%27th of 32 |
| 23rd of 324–6 | Last 10 | 2–831st of 32 |
| 17th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 150214th of 32 |
| 19th of 321489 | Elo rating | 144331st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  NSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 14–3 | 8–10 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 1–5 |
| Underdog | 13–2 | 7–5 |
| Overs–unders | 9–8 | 8–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 3–1 NSH in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.