Carolina Hurricanes at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Jackson BlakeGoals2
- Sean WalkerAssists1
- Jackson BlakePoints2
Wild- Mats ZuccarelloGoals1
- Danila YurovAssists2
- Mats ZuccarelloPoints2
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Matt Boldy Goal Backhand0–1
- P318:54Jackson Blake Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (9), Shayne Gostisbehere (12)3–3
- P36:34Sebastian Aho Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrei Svechnikov (5), Seth Jarvis (7)2–3
- P30:15Mats Zuccarello Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (13), Danila Yurov (3)1–3
- P214:03Jackson Blake Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Sean Walker (4), Logan Stankoven (6)1–2
- P111:46Matt Boldy Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–2
- P11:54Brock Faber Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Mats Zuccarello (5), Danila Yurov (2)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P111:46Matt Boldy Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: noneCAR 0 – 2 MIN · MIN 57% → 72% +15MIN 57% → 72%+15 pts
- P214:03Jackson Blake Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Sean Walker (4), Logan Stankoven (6)CAR 1 – 2 MIN · CAR 18% → 35% +18CAR 18% → 35%+18 pts
- P30:15Mats Zuccarello Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (13), Danila Yurov (3)CAR 1 – 3 MIN · MIN 68% → 87% +18MIN 68% → 87%+18 pts
- P36:34Sebastian Aho Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrei Svechnikov (5), Seth Jarvis (7)CAR 2 – 3 MIN · CAR 8% → 26% +18CAR 8% → 26%+18 pts
- P318:54Jackson Blake Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (9), Shayne Gostisbehere (12)CAR 3 – 3 MIN · CAR <1% → 51% +51CAR <1% → 51%+51 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 61%
- ML CAR -170 / MIN +145
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.6 pts
- CAR: Elo 52.1%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- CAR -154
- MIN +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 3.6 – 2.9 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1551 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | +9 | CAR: Frederik Andersen: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) · MIN: Jesper Wallstedt: team allows 0.24 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +14 Elo | CAR 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 59.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 57.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 60.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 323.7 | Goals scored | 2.826th of 32 |
| 8th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.015th of 32 |
| 2nd of 32+0.8 | Margin | −0.325th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3256.3% | Shot share | 49.4%17th of 32 |
| 18th of 3289.7% | Save percentage | 90.5%7th of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Road vs home | 6–620th of 32 |
| 16th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 149228th of 32 |
| 4th of 321551 | Elo rating | 149118th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CAR |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 9–10 | 11–9 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 7–10 | 3–6 |
| Underdog | 2–0 | 8–3 |
| Overs–unders | 11–8 | 10–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CAR 2–3 MIN in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 5.