Carolina Hurricanes at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Taylor HallGoals1
- Joel NystromAssists2
- Taylor HallPoints2
Bruins- Riley TufteGoals1
- Michael EyssimontAssists1
- Riley TuftePoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:50Riley Tufte Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Michael Eyssimont (6), Henri Jokiharju (4)3–1
- P317:27Taylor Hall Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Nystrom (3)3–0
- P213:34Mark Jankowski Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Taylor Hall (7), Sean Walker (3)2–0
- P28:25Jordan Staal Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Joel Nystrom (2), William Carrier (4)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P28:25Jordan Staal Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Joel Nystrom (2), William Carrier (4)CAR 1 – 0 BOS · CAR 60% → 78% +17CAR 60% → 78%+17 pts
- P213:34Mark Jankowski Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Taylor Hall (7), Sean Walker (3)CAR 2 – 0 BOS · CAR 79% → 91% +12CAR 79% → 91%+12 pts
- P317:27Taylor Hall Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Nystrom (3)CAR 3 – 0 BOS · CAR >99% → >99% +0CAR >99% → >99%+0 pts
- P319:50Riley Tufte Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Michael Eyssimont (6), Henri Jokiharju (4)CAR 3 – 1 BOS · BOS 0% → 0% +0BOS 0% → 0%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 64%
- ML CAR -200 / BOS +170
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −12.0 pts
- CAR: Elo 52.3%, market 64.3%
- Fair odds
- CAR -180
- BOS +180 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 3.7 – 2.8 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1548 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −5 | +2 | CAR: Pyotr Kochetkov: team allows 0.12 more goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) · BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +16 Elo | CAR 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 61.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 59.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 64.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 323.7 | Goals scored | 3.45th of 32 |
| 12th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.323rd of 32 |
| 2nd of 32+0.8 | Margin | +0.112th of 32 |
| 1st of 3256.5% | Shot share | 47.6%26th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3289.2% | Save percentage | 89.3%21st of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 32 |
| 3rd of 326–3 | Road vs home | 8–34th of 32 |
| 14th of 321503 | Opponent Elo | 15083rd of 32 |
| 4th of 321548 | Elo rating | 149021st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CAR |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 8–10 | 15–5 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 6–10 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 2–0 | 14–3 |
| Overs–unders | 11–7 | 12–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CAR 4–3 BOS in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 7.