Boston Bruins at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins- David PastrnakGoals1
- David PastrnakAssists1
- David PastrnakPoints2
Senators- Tim StutzleGoals2
- Tim StutzleAssists1
- Tim StutzlePoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:42Tim Stützle Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Claude Giroux (10), Nikolas Matinpalo (2)3–5
- P314:17Tim Stützle Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Drake Batherson (12), Artem Zub (8)3–4
- P35:15Mark Kastelic Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Tanner Jeannot (6)3–3
- P33:49David Pastrnak Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Geekie (6), Viktor Arvidsson (4)2–3
- P31:06Shane Pinto Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Michael Amadio (3), Jake Sanderson (10)1–3
- P211:49Morgan Geekie Goal (12) Slap Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (13), Marat Khusnutdinov (3)1–2
- P119:03Dylan Cozens Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Fabian Zetterlund (3), Ridly Greig (6)0–2
- P11:28Claude Giroux Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Tim Stützle (9), Dylan Cozens (7)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:28Claude Giroux Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Tim Stützle (9), Dylan Cozens (7)BOS 0 – 1 OTT · OTT 59% → 72% +13OTT 59% → 72%+13 pts
- P31:06Shane Pinto Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Michael Amadio (3), Jake Sanderson (10)BOS 1 – 3 OTT · OTT 78% → 92% +14OTT 78% → 92%+14 pts
- P33:49David Pastrnak Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Geekie (6), Viktor Arvidsson (4)BOS 2 – 3 OTT · BOS 6% → 21% +14BOS 6% → 21%+14 pts
- P35:15Mark Kastelic Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Tanner Jeannot (6)BOS 3 – 3 OTT · BOS 20% → 45% +26BOS 20% → 45%+26 pts
- P314:17Tim Stützle Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Drake Batherson (12), Artem Zub (8)BOS 3 – 4 OTT · OTT 53% → 89% +37OTT 53% → 89%+37 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Senators 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- OTT 59%
- ML BOS +135 / OTT -160
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.3 pts
- OTT: Elo 57.8%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- OTT -145
- BOS +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 2.5 – 3.0 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | +9 | BOS: Joonas Korpisalo: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) · OTT: Leevi Merilainen: team allows 0.23 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OTT +55 Elo | OTT 57.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 64.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 62.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OTT 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BOS | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.56th of 32 |
| 22nd of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.629th of 32 |
| 13th of 32+0.2 | Margin | −0.120th of 32 |
| 28th of 3247.6% | Shot share | 51.3%11th of 32 |
| 21st of 3289.4% | Save percentage | 87.0%31st of 32 |
| 1st of 328–2 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 32 |
| 21st of 323–4 | Road vs home | 5–414th of 32 |
| 3rd of 321510 | Opponent Elo | 149127th of 32 |
| 20th of 321490 | Elo rating | 150016th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  OTT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 14–4 | 6–11 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 1–10 |
| Underdog | 13–2 | 5–1 |
| Overs–unders | 11–7 | 11–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 4–5 OTT in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.