Dallas Stars at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Stars- Jason RobertsonGoals1
- Jason RobertsonAssists2
- Jason RobertsonPoints3
Senators- Nick JensenGoals1
- Claude GirouxAssists1
- Nick JensenPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT3:04Roope Hintz Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jason Robertson (13), Miro Heiskanen (13)3–2
- P38:00Jason Robertson Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (14), Miro Heiskanen (12)2–2
- P216:22Mikko Rantanen Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Jason Robertson (12)1–2
- P18:53Nick Jensen Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Amadio (2), Claude Giroux (9)0–2
- P10:49Drake Batherson Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Sanderson (9)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:49Drake Batherson Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Sanderson (9)DAL 0 – 1 OTT · OTT 52% → 66% +14OTT 52% → 66%+14 pts
- P18:53Nick Jensen Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Amadio (2), Claude Giroux (9)DAL 0 – 2 OTT · OTT 67% → 80% +13OTT 67% → 80%+13 pts
- P216:22Mikko Rantanen Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Jason Robertson (12)DAL 1 – 2 OTT · DAL 12% → 27% +15DAL 12% → 27%+15 pts
- P38:00Jason Robertson Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (14), Miro Heiskanen (12)DAL 2 – 2 OTT · DAL 20% → 49% +29DAL 20% → 49%+29 pts
- OT3:04Roope Hintz Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jason Robertson (13), Miro Heiskanen (13)DAL 3 – 2 OTT · DAL 50% → 98% +48DAL 50% → 98%+48 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Senators 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- OTT 52%
- ML DAL +100 / OTT -120
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.3 pts
- OTT: Elo 50.8%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- OTT -109
- DAL +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 2.7 – 2.8 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1530 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | −3 | DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · OTT: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OTT +6 Elo | OTT 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 51.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OTT 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DAL | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.66th of 32 |
| 17th of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.630th of 32 |
| 19th of 32−0.1 | Margin | −0.116th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3247.9% | Shot share | 51.6%9th of 32 |
| 21st of 3289.4% | Save percentage | 86.7%31st of 32 |
| 5th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 32 |
| 7th of 324–3 | Road vs home | 5–39th of 32 |
| 5th of 321509 | Opponent Elo | 148929th of 32 |
| 7th of 321530 | Elo rating | 150314th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  OTT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 5–11 | 6–10 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–11 | 1–9 |
| Underdog | 4–0 | 5–1 |
| Overs–unders | 8–8 | 11–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 2–2 OTT in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.