Boston Bruins at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins- Mason LohreiGoals1
- David PastrnakAssists2
- David PastrnakPoints2
Canadiens- Jake EvansGoals1
- Jayden StrubleAssists1
- Jake EvansPoints1
Scoring summary
- P218:44Cole Caufield Goal (13) Backhand, assists: Nick Suzuki (17), Jayden Struble (4)3–2
- P216:51Viktor Arvidsson Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Pavel Zacha (11), David Pastrnak (15)3–1
- P22:00Mason Lohrei Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Mark Kastelic (4), Tanner Jeannot (7)2–1
- P112:12Jake Evans Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Josh Anderson (3)1–1
- P18:38Marat Khusnutdinov Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (14), Nikita Zadorov (4)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:38Marat Khusnutdinov Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (14), Nikita Zadorov (4)BOS 1 – 0 MTL · BOS 42% → 57% +16BOS 42% → 57%+16 pts
- P112:12Jake Evans Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Josh Anderson (3)BOS 1 – 1 MTL · MTL 42% → 58% +16MTL 42% → 58%+16 pts
- P22:00Mason Lohrei Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Mark Kastelic (4), Tanner Jeannot (7)BOS 2 – 1 MTL · BOS 43% → 61% +18BOS 43% → 61%+18 pts
- P216:51Viktor Arvidsson Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Pavel Zacha (11), David Pastrnak (15)BOS 3 – 1 MTL · BOS 67% → 85% +18BOS 67% → 85%+18 pts
- P218:44Cole Caufield Goal (13) Backhand, assists: Nick Suzuki (17), Jayden Struble (4)BOS 3 – 2 MTL · MTL 14% → 32% +18MTL 14% → 32%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Canadiens 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- MTL 59%
- ML BOS +135 / MTL -155
- Pre-line forecast
- MTL 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MTL 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.8 pts
- MTL: Elo 54.0%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- MTL -143
- BOS +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 2.5 – 3.0 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | −7 | BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · MTL: Sam Montembeault: team allows 0.18 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MTL +28 Elo | MTL 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MTL 59.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MTL 58.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MTL 58.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BOS | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.47th of 32 |
| 24th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 3.525th of 32 |
| 16th of 32+0.1 | Margin | −0.120th of 32 |
| 26th of 3247.7% | Shot share | 48.1%24th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3289.1% | Save percentage | 87.8%29th of 32 |
| 1st of 328–2 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 32 |
| 23rd of 323–5 | Road vs home | 5–414th of 32 |
| 2nd of 321510 | Opponent Elo | 149226th of 32 |
| 21st of 321487 | Elo rating | 148820th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 14–5 | 5–12 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 1–10 |
| Underdog | 13–3 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders | 12–7 | 13–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 9–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 5–2 MTL in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 7.