Dallas Stars at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Stars- Jason RobertsonGoals2
- Radek FaksaAssists3
- Jason RobertsonPoints3
CanadiensScoring summary
- P314:40Colin Blackwell Goal (1) Batted, assists: Radek Faksa (6), Ilya Lyubushkin (3)7–0
- P32:01Alexander Petrovic Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Radek Faksa (5), Colin Blackwell (3)6–0
- P216:49Jason Robertson Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Justin Hryckowian (1), Mavrik Bourque (4)5–0
- P215:10Jason Robertson Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Thomas Harley (9), Mikko Rantanen (16)4–0
- P27:10Tyler Seguin Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Jason Robertson (14), Lian Bichsel (2)3–0
- P23:50Esa Lindell Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Miro Heiskanen (14), Radek Faksa (4)2–0
- P114:21Wyatt Johnston Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Roope Hintz (9), Mikko Rantanen (15)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P114:21Wyatt Johnston Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Roope Hintz (9), Mikko Rantanen (15)DAL 1 – 0 MTL · DAL 48% → 64% +16DAL 48% → 64%+16 pts
- P23:50Esa Lindell Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Miro Heiskanen (14), Radek Faksa (4)DAL 2 – 0 MTL · DAL 67% → 82% +15DAL 67% → 82%+15 pts
- P27:10Tyler Seguin Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Jason Robertson (14), Lian Bichsel (2)DAL 3 – 0 MTL · DAL 83% → 93% +10DAL 83% → 93%+10 pts
- P215:10Jason Robertson Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Thomas Harley (9), Mikko Rantanen (16)DAL 4 – 0 MTL · DAL 95% → 99% +4DAL 95% → 99%+4 pts
- P216:49Jason Robertson Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Justin Hryckowian (1), Mavrik Bourque (4)DAL 5 – 0 MTL · DAL 99% → >99% +1DAL 99% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Canadiens 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- MTL 52%
- ML DAL +100 / MTL -120
- Pre-line forecast
- MTL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MTL 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.4 pts
- MTL: Elo 50.8%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- MTL -109
- DAL +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 2.7 – 2.8 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1533 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | +8 | DAL: Casey DeSmith: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · MTL: Jakub Dobes: team allows 0.20 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MTL +5 Elo | MTL 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MTL 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MTL 52.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MTL 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DAL | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.65th of 32 |
| 16th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.321st of 32 |
| 17th of 32−0.1 | Margin | +0.49th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3248.3% | Shot share | 47.7%27th of 32 |
| 19th of 3289.7% | Save percentage | 88.8%25th of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 32 |
| 4th of 325–3 | Road vs home | 5–38th of 32 |
| 4th of 321509 | Opponent Elo | 148831st of 32 |
| 6th of 321533 | Elo rating | 149519th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 6–11 | 5–11 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–11 | 1–9 |
| Underdog | 5–0 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders | 8–9 | 12–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 9–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 2–2 MTL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.