Carolina Hurricanes at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Shayne GostisbehereGoals1
- Shayne GostisbeherePoints1
Sabres- Tage ThompsonGoals1
- Ryan McLeodAssists2
- Ryan McLeodPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:38Tage Thompson Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Benson (9)1–4
- P218:36Beck Malenstyn Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyson Kozak (2), Peyton Krebs (6)1–3
- P23:55Jack Quinn Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Ryan McLeod (8), Jason Zucker (6)1–2
- P114:36Shayne Gostisbehere Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–1
- P15:51Alex Tuch Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan McLeod (7), Josh Doan (8)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:51Alex Tuch Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan McLeod (7), Josh Doan (8)CAR 0 – 1 BUF · BUF 38% → 53% +15BUF 38% → 53%+15 pts
- P114:36Shayne Gostisbehere Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: noneCAR 1 – 1 BUF · CAR 45% → 61% +17CAR 45% → 61%+17 pts
- P23:55Jack Quinn Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Ryan McLeod (8), Jason Zucker (6)CAR 1 – 2 BUF · BUF 40% → 58% +19BUF 40% → 58%+19 pts
- P218:36Beck Malenstyn Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyson Kozak (2), Peyton Krebs (6)CAR 1 – 3 BUF · BUF 66% → 85% +19BUF 66% → 85%+19 pts
- P319:38Tage Thompson Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Benson (9)CAR 1 – 4 BUF · BUF 100% → 100% +0BUF 100% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 63%
- ML CAR -190 / BUF +160
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.1 pts
- CAR: Elo 56.9%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- CAR -170
- BUF +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 3.6 – 2.9 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1551 | 1473 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | −6 | CAR: Frederik Andersen: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) · BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.16 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +48 Elo | CAR 56.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 61.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 60.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 323.7 | Goals scored | 3.212th of 32 |
| 12th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.527th of 32 |
| 2nd of 32+0.8 | Margin | −0.326th of 32 |
| 1st of 3256.7% | Shot share | 47.1%28th of 32 |
| 20th of 3289.5% | Save percentage | 89.9%17th of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 32 |
| 1st of 328–4 | Road vs home | 7–617th of 32 |
| 12th of 321505 | Opponent Elo | 15092nd of 32 |
| 3rd of 321551 | Elo rating | 147327th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CAR |  BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 9–12 | 9–12 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 7–12 | 2–5 |
| Underdog | 2–0 | 7–7 |
| Overs–unders | 13–8 | 13–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CAR 4–3 BUF in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.