Carolina Hurricanes at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Jordan StaalGoals2
- Sebastian AhoAssists2
- Jordan StaalPoints2
Jets- Gabriel VilardiGoals2
- Dylan DeMeloAssists1
- Gabriel VilardiPoints2
Scoring summary
- P34:13Gabriel Vilardi Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Connor (14)4–3
- P33:19Andrei Svechnikov Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (10), Sebastian Aho (13)4–2
- P26:31Seth Jarvis Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (12), K'Andre Miller (8)3–2
- P23:08Jordan Staal Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Jalen Chatfield (4), K'Andre Miller (7)2–2
- P19:28Gabriel Vilardi Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Perfetti (2)1–2
- P13:45Josh Morrissey Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (17), Dylan DeMelo (8)1–1
- P10:16Jordan Staal Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Jordan Martinook (6)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:28Gabriel Vilardi Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Perfetti (2)CAR 1 – 2 WPG · WPG 40% → 56% +16WPG 40% → 56%+16 pts
- P23:08Jordan Staal Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Jalen Chatfield (4), K'Andre Miller (7)CAR 2 – 2 WPG · CAR 40% → 58% +18CAR 40% → 58%+18 pts
- P26:31Seth Jarvis Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (12), K'Andre Miller (8)CAR 3 – 2 WPG · CAR 58% → 76% +18CAR 58% → 76%+18 pts
- P33:19Andrei Svechnikov Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (10), Sebastian Aho (13)CAR 4 – 2 WPG · CAR 80% → 94% +14CAR 80% → 94%+14 pts
- P34:13Gabriel Vilardi Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Connor (14)CAR 4 – 3 WPG · WPG 6% → 20% +14WPG 6% → 20%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 61%
- ML CAR -170 / WPG +145
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −15.8 pts
- CAR: Elo 44.9%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- CAR -154
- WPG +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 3.6 – 2.9 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1549 | 1557 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −4 | −12 | CAR: Brandon Bussi: team allows 0.11 more goals than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · WPG: Eric Comrie: team allows 0.31 more goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +36 Elo | WPG 55.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 51.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 60.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 323.6 | Goals scored | 3.45th of 32 |
| 11th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 2.74th of 32 |
| 2nd of 32+0.8 | Margin | +0.63rd of 32 |
| 1st of 3257.0% | Shot share | 48.4%23rd of 32 |
| 20th of 3289.5% | Save percentage | 91.2%2nd of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 4th of 327–4 | Road vs home | 6–35th of 32 |
| 14th of 321503 | Opponent Elo | 148032nd of 32 |
| 4th of 321549 | Elo rating | 15572nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CAR |  WPG |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 9–11 | 8–11 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 7–11 | 8–10 |
| Underdog | 2–0 | 0–1 |
| Overs–unders | 12–8 | 11–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CAR 1–3 WPG in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.