Columbus Blue Jackets at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jackets- Miles WoodGoals1
- Damon SeversonAssists1
- Miles WoodPoints1
Jets- Josh MorrisseyGoals1
- Mark ScheifeleAssists3
- Mark ScheifelePoints3
Scoring summary
- P36:23Logan Stanley Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (16), Luke Schenn (2)2–5
- P34:04Zach Werenski Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Sillinger (6), Charlie Coyle (11)2–4
- P32:45Kyle Connor Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (15), Josh Morrissey (17)1–4
- P215:30Neal Pionk Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Gustav Nyquist (6), Nino Niederreiter (9)1–3
- P21:12Josh Morrissey Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Mark Scheifele (14), Kyle Connor (13)1–2
- P118:27Miles Wood Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Damon Severson (5), Elvis Merzlikins (1)1–1
- P17:35Adam Lowry Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nino Niederreiter (8), Neal Pionk (4)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:35Adam Lowry Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nino Niederreiter (8), Neal Pionk (4)CBJ 0 – 1 WPG · WPG 60% → 74% +14WPG 60% → 74%+14 pts
- P118:27Miles Wood Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Damon Severson (5), Elvis Merzlikins (1)CBJ 1 – 1 WPG · CBJ 25% → 41% +16CBJ 25% → 41%+16 pts
- P21:12Josh Morrissey Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Mark Scheifele (14), Kyle Connor (13)CBJ 1 – 2 WPG · WPG 59% → 75% +16WPG 59% → 75%+16 pts
- P215:30Neal Pionk Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Gustav Nyquist (6), Nino Niederreiter (9)CBJ 1 – 3 WPG · WPG 77% → 91% +13WPG 77% → 91%+13 pts
- P32:45Kyle Connor Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (15), Josh Morrissey (17)CBJ 1 – 4 WPG · WPG 93% → 99% +5WPG 93% → 99%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jets 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- WPG 61%
- ML CBJ +145 / WPG -170
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.1 pts
- WPG: Elo 66.8%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- WPG -154
- CBJ +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CBJ 2.9 – 3.6 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CBJ | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1554 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | CBJ on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −14 | −15 | CBJ: Elvis Merzlikins: team allows 0.36 more goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · WPG: Eric Comrie: team allows 0.38 more goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +121 Elo | WPG 66.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 59.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 61.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WPG 60.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CBJ | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 3.39th of 32 |
| 20th of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 2.86th of 32 |
| 14th of 320.0 | Margin | +0.57th of 32 |
| 16th of 3249.6% | Shot share | 47.9%25th of 32 |
| 7th of 3290.6% | Save percentage | 91.2%5th of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 12th of 325–5 | Road vs home | 5–39th of 32 |
| 15th of 321502 | Opponent Elo | 147932nd of 32 |
| 17th of 321497 | Elo rating | 15542nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CBJ |  WPG |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 11–8 | 7–11 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 1–5 | 7–10 |
| Underdog | 10–3 | 0–1 |
| Overs–unders | 9–10 | 10–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CBJ 1–3 WPG in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.