Montreal Canadiens at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- Lane HutsonGoals1
- Lane HutsonAssists1
- Lane HutsonPoints2
Blue Jackets- Dmitri VoronkovGoals1
- Kirill MarchenkoAssists2
- Zach WerenskiPoints2
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Kirill Marchenko Goal Wrist Shot1–2
- SO0:00Cole Caufield Goal Snap Shot1–2
- SO0:00Kent Johnson Goal Backhand1–2
- P318:41Lane Hutson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Dobson (11), Cole Caufield (7)3–3
- P38:28Josh Anderson Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Lane Hutson (14), Jake Evans (3)2–3
- P213:32Dmitri Voronkov Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Kirill Marchenko (14), Zach Werenski (10)1–3
- P29:47Adam Fantilli Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Marchenko (13), Dmitri Voronkov (8)1–2
- P24:47Oliver Kapanen Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Mike Matheson (7), Ivan Demidov (10)1–1
- P16:58Zach Werenski Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Mathieu Olivier (6), Charlie Coyle (10)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:58Zach Werenski Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Mathieu Olivier (6), Charlie Coyle (10)MTL 0 – 1 CBJ · CBJ 55% → 70% +15CBJ 55% → 70%+15 pts
- P24:47Oliver Kapanen Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Mike Matheson (7), Ivan Demidov (10)MTL 1 – 1 CBJ · MTL 28% → 46% +18MTL 28% → 46%+18 pts
- P29:47Adam Fantilli Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Marchenko (13), Dmitri Voronkov (8)MTL 1 – 2 CBJ · CBJ 54% → 73% +19CBJ 54% → 73%+19 pts
- P213:32Dmitri Voronkov Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Kirill Marchenko (14), Zach Werenski (10)MTL 1 – 3 CBJ · CBJ 74% → 88% +14CBJ 74% → 88%+14 pts
- P318:41Lane Hutson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Dobson (11), Cole Caufield (7)MTL 3 – 3 CBJ · MTL <1% → 49% +49MTL <1% → 49%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jackets 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- CBJ 55%
- ML MTL +115 / CBJ -135
- Pre-line forecast
- CBJ 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CBJ 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.9 pts
- CBJ: Elo 57.2%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- CBJ -124
- MTL +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 3.1 – 3.4 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | +8 | MTL: Jakub Dobes: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) · CBJ: Jet Greaves: team allows 0.19 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CBJ +50 Elo | CBJ 57.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CBJ 54.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CBJ 55.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CBJ 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.117th of 32 |
| 27th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 3.220th of 32 |
| 23rd of 32−0.1 | Margin | −0.119th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3248.5% | Shot share | 50.0%13th of 32 |
| 29th of 3287.7% | Save percentage | 90.6%7th of 32 |
| 21st of 324–6 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 5th of 325–3 | Road vs home | 4–418th of 32 |
| 28th of 321492 | Opponent Elo | 150414th of 32 |
| 22nd of 321486 | Elo rating | 149517th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MTL |  CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 5–13 | 11–7 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 1–11 | 1–4 |
| Underdog | 4–2 | 10–3 |
| Overs–unders | 13–5 | 8–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 9–1 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MTL 5–1 CBJ in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.