Seattle Kraken at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken- Matty BeniersGoals1
- Ryker EvansAssists2
- Ryker EvansPoints2
Penguins- Sidney CrosbyGoals1
- Sidney CrosbyAssists1
- Sidney CrosbyPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT4:10Brandon Montour Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Freddy Gaudreau (2), Ryker Evans (4)3–2
- P312:36Matty Beniers Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Mason Marchment (9), Ryker Evans (3)2–2
- P35:56Evgeni Malkin Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Ben Kindel (3), Sidney Crosby (10)1–2
- P216:16Sidney Crosby Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Dewar (3)1–1
- P21:24Mason Marchment Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P21:24Mason Marchment Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: noneSEA 1 – 0 PIT · SEA 47% → 65% +18SEA 47% → 65%+18 pts
- P216:16Sidney Crosby Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Dewar (3)SEA 1 – 1 PIT · PIT 30% → 52% +22PIT 30% → 52%+22 pts
- P35:56Evgeni Malkin Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Ben Kindel (3), Sidney Crosby (10)SEA 1 – 2 PIT · PIT 52% → 79% +27PIT 52% → 79%+27 pts
- P312:36Matty Beniers Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Mason Marchment (9), Ryker Evans (3)SEA 2 – 2 PIT · SEA 14% → 49% +35SEA 14% → 49%+35 pts
- OT4:10Brandon Montour Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Freddy Gaudreau (2), Ryker Evans (4)SEA 3 – 2 PIT · SEA 50% → >99% +50SEA 50% → >99%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Penguins 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 53%
- ML SEA +105 / PIT -125
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.2 pts
- PIT: Elo 53.5%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- PIT -114
- SEA +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 2.7 – 2.8 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1479 | 1484 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | PIT on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −14 | — | SEA: Philipp Grubauer: team allows 0.34 more goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) · PIT: Starter not announced |
| Elo ratings | PIT +24 Elo | PIT 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 55.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 54.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 3.116th of 32 |
| 6th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 2.84th of 32 |
| 20th of 32−0.1 | Margin | +0.49th of 32 |
| 27th of 3247.3% | Shot share | 48.4%23rd of 32 |
| 9th of 3290.4% | Save percentage | 91.1%2nd of 32 |
| 11th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 32 |
| 24th of 324–6 | Road vs home | 4–421st of 32 |
| 28th of 321492 | Opponent Elo | 149521st of 32 |
| 25th of 321479 | Elo rating | 148421st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 14–6 | 15–5 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 3–3 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 11–3 | 13–2 |
| Overs–unders | 9–11 | 9–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 3–1 PIT in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.