Pittsburgh Penguins at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins- Sidney CrosbyGoals2
- Tommy NovakAssists2
- Sidney CrosbyPoints2
Blue Jackets- Zach WerenskiGoals1
- Zach WerenskiAssists1
- Zach WerenskiPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT0:59Kris Letang Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Thomas Novak (7)4–3
- P38:28Sidney Crosby Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Thomas Novak (6), Parker Wotherspoon (7)3–3
- P30:13Bryan Rust Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Erik Karlsson (14)2–3
- P219:56Zach Werenski Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Charlie Coyle (12)1–3
- P23:51Brendan Gaunce Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Miles Wood (2), Zach Werenski (15)1–2
- P113:40Sean Monahan Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Brendan Smith (1), Damon Severson (7)1–1
- P16:10Sidney Crosby Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Kris Letang (8)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:10Sidney Crosby Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Kris Letang (8)PIT 1 – 0 CBJ · PIT 45% → 60% +15PIT 45% → 60%+15 pts
- P113:40Sean Monahan Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Brendan Smith (1), Damon Severson (7)PIT 1 – 1 CBJ · CBJ 38% → 55% +16CBJ 38% → 55%+16 pts
- P23:51Brendan Gaunce Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Miles Wood (2), Zach Werenski (15)PIT 1 – 2 CBJ · CBJ 54% → 72% +18CBJ 54% → 72%+18 pts
- P38:28Sidney Crosby Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Thomas Novak (6), Parker Wotherspoon (7)PIT 3 – 3 CBJ · PIT 19% → 48% +29PIT 19% → 48%+29 pts
- OT0:59Kris Letang Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Thomas Novak (7)PIT 4 – 3 CBJ · PIT 49% → 92% +43PIT 49% → 92%+43 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jackets 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- CBJ 55%
- ML PIT +115 / CBJ -135
- Pre-line forecast
- CBJ 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CBJ 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.2 pts
- CBJ: Elo 56.4%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- CBJ -124
- PIT +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.1 – 3.4 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +8 | PIT: Tristan Jarry: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) · CBJ: Jet Greaves: team allows 0.20 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CBJ +45 Elo | CBJ 56.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CBJ 60.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CBJ 59.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CBJ 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 2.925th of 32 |
| 6th of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 3.322nd of 32 |
| 7th of 32+0.4 | Margin | −0.323rd of 32 |
| 18th of 3248.5% | Shot share | 49.6%16th of 32 |
| 4th of 3291.1% | Save percentage | 90.0%17th of 32 |
| 25th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 10th of 325–5 | Road vs home | 5–521st of 32 |
| 27th of 321493 | Opponent Elo | 15074th of 32 |
| 21st of 321485 | Elo rating | 148819th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 16–6 | 13–11 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–4 | 1–6 |
| Underdog | 13–2 | 12–5 |
| Overs–unders | 9–13 | 11–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 4–4 CBJ in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.