Columbus Blue Jackets at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jackets- Denton MateychukGoals1
- Brendan GaunceAssists1
- Denton MateychukPoints1
Capitals- Jakob ChychrunGoals2
- Justin SourdifAssists2
- Jakob ChychrunPoints2
Scoring summary
- P35:50Denton Mateychuk Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Brendan Gaunce (1), Jake Christiansen (1)1–5
- P34:05Martin Fehervary Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Connor McMichael (9), John Carlson (16)0–5
- P219:57John Carlson Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Alex Ovechkin (11), Justin Sourdif (3)0–4
- P219:45Jakob Chychrun Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Tom Wilson (11)0–3
- P216:29Tom Wilson Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Aliaksei Protas (8), Justin Sourdif (2)0–2
- P16:05Jakob Chychrun Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Leonard (6), Hendrix Lapierre (5)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:05Jakob Chychrun Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Leonard (6), Hendrix Lapierre (5)CBJ 0 – 1 WSH · WSH 60% → 74% +14WSH 60% → 74%+14 pts
- P216:29Tom Wilson Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Aliaksei Protas (8), Justin Sourdif (2)CBJ 0 – 2 WSH · WSH 77% → 91% +14WSH 77% → 91%+14 pts
- P219:45Jakob Chychrun Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Tom Wilson (11)CBJ 0 – 3 WSH · WSH 92% → 98% +6WSH 92% → 98%+6 pts
- P219:57John Carlson Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Alex Ovechkin (11), Justin Sourdif (3)CBJ 0 – 4 WSH · WSH 98% → >99% +2WSH 98% → >99%+2 pts
- P34:05Martin Fehervary Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Connor McMichael (9), John Carlson (16)CBJ 0 – 5 WSH · WSH >99% → >99% +0WSH >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Capitals 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 61%
- ML CBJ +145 / WSH -170
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.0 pts
- WSH: Elo 61.7%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- WSH -154
- CBJ +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CBJ 2.9 – 3.6 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CBJ | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −16 | +3 | CBJ: Elvis Merzlikins: team allows 0.40 more goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · WSH: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +83 Elo | WSH 61.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 58.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 59.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 60.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CBJ | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.28th of 32 |
| 24th of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 2.88th of 32 |
| 20th of 32−0.1 | Margin | +0.45th of 32 |
| 16th of 3249.5% | Shot share | 53.2%5th of 32 |
| 12th of 3290.3% | Save percentage | 90.2%15th of 32 |
| 20th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 32 |
| 18th of 326–7 | Road vs home | 6–620th of 32 |
| 10th of 321505 | Opponent Elo | 15075th of 32 |
| 18th of 321495 | Elo rating | 15249th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CBJ |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 12–10 | 12–10 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–6 | 6–9 |
| Underdog | 11–4 | 6–1 |
| Overs–unders | 11–11 | 11–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CBJ 2–6 WSH in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.