Tampa Bay Lightning at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lightning- Brandon HagelGoals2
- Brandon HagelAssists2
- Brandon HagelPoints4
Capitals- Jakob ChychrunGoals1
- Jakob ChychrunAssists1
- Jakob ChychrunPoints2
Scoring summary
- P315:51Anthony Cirelli Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Brandon Hagel (10), Jake Guentzel (10)5–3
- P35:24Ethen Frank Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Sonny Milano (1), Jakob Chychrun (13)4–3
- P25:26Jakob Chychrun Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: none4–2
- P118:19Nikita Kucherov Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (9), Charle-Edouard D'Astous (5)4–1
- P111:36Brandon Hagel Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (12), J.J. Moser (6)3–1
- P15:21Oliver Bjorkstrand Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (11), Darren Raddysh (7)2–1
- P12:53Brandon Hagel Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Anthony Cirelli (6), Erik Cernak (4)1–1
- P11:06Justin Sourdif Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Tom Wilson (10), Martin Fehervary (6)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:06Justin Sourdif Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Tom Wilson (10), Martin Fehervary (6)TB 0 – 1 WSH · WSH 52% → 66% +14WSH 52% → 66%+14 pts
- P12:53Brandon Hagel Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Anthony Cirelli (6), Erik Cernak (4)TB 1 – 1 WSH · TB 33% → 48% +14TB 33% → 48%+14 pts
- P15:21Oliver Bjorkstrand Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (11), Darren Raddysh (7)TB 2 – 1 WSH · TB 48% → 63% +15TB 48% → 63%+15 pts
- P111:36Brandon Hagel Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (12), J.J. Moser (6)TB 3 – 1 WSH · TB 64% → 78% +14TB 64% → 78%+14 pts
- P35:24Ethen Frank Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Sonny Milano (1), Jakob Chychrun (13)TB 4 – 3 WSH · WSH 7% → 24% +16WSH 7% → 24%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Capitals 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 52%
- ML TB +100 / WSH -120
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.8 pts
- WSH: Elo 58.0%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- WSH -109
- TB +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.2 – 3.3 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1535 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −22 | +5 | TB: Jonas Johansson: team allows 0.55 more goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) · WSH: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +56 Elo | WSH 58.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 57.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 57.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TB | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.210th of 32 |
| 10th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 2.73rd of 32 |
| 11th of 32+0.2 | Margin | +0.55th of 32 |
| 16th of 3249.5% | Shot share | 52.7%8th of 32 |
| 13th of 3290.2% | Save percentage | 90.8%6th of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 32 |
| 8th of 325–4 | Road vs home | 6–514th of 32 |
| 4th of 321508 | Opponent Elo | 150510th of 32 |
| 6th of 321535 | Elo rating | 15288th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 7–13 | 12–9 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 2–13 | 6–8 |
| Underdog | 5–0 | 6–1 |
| Overs–unders | 9–11 | 10–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 4–4 WSH in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.