Vancouver Canucks at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canucks- Mackenzie MacEachernGoals1
- Filip HronekAssists2
- Mackenzie MacEachernPoints2
Lightning- Jake GuentzelGoals1
- Erik CernakAssists1
- Nikita KucherovPoints1
Scoring summary
- P316:57Marcus Pettersson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Elias Pettersson (13), Tyler Myers (4)6–2
- P313:52Mackenzie MacEachern Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Filip Hronek (11), Quinn Hughes (16)5–2
- P35:51Drew O'Connor Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Quinn Hughes (15), Filip Hronek (10)4–2
- P34:54Linus Karlsson Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Mackenzie MacEachern (3)3–2
- P34:11Kiefer Sherwood Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Brock Boeser (6), Quinn Hughes (14)2–2
- P29:26Jake DeBrusk Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Elias Pettersson (12), Quinn Hughes (13)1–2
- P24:35Jake Guentzel Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Erik Cernak (3), Brandon Hagel (8)0–2
- P119:25Nikita Kucherov Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Darren Raddysh (3), Brayden Point (7)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P119:25Nikita Kucherov Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Darren Raddysh (3), Brayden Point (7)VAN 0 – 1 TB · TB 56% → 72% +16TB 56% → 72%+16 pts
- P29:26Jake DeBrusk Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Elias Pettersson (12), Quinn Hughes (13)VAN 1 – 2 TB · VAN 12% → 26% +14VAN 12% → 26%+14 pts
- P34:11Kiefer Sherwood Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Brock Boeser (6), Quinn Hughes (14)VAN 2 – 2 TB · VAN 21% → 46% +25VAN 21% → 46%+25 pts
- P34:54Linus Karlsson Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Mackenzie MacEachern (3)VAN 3 – 2 TB · VAN 46% → 74% +27VAN 46% → 74%+27 pts
- P35:51Drew O'Connor Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Quinn Hughes (15), Filip Hronek (10)VAN 4 – 2 TB · VAN 75% → 92% +17VAN 75% → 92%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lightning 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- TB 57%
- ML VAN +125 / TB -145
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.1 pts
- TB: Elo 57.0%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- TB -133
- VAN +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VAN 3.0 – 3.5 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VAN | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1481 | 1535 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | TB on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −10 | −20 | VAN: Kevin Lankinen: team allows 0.25 more goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · TB: Jonas Johansson: team allows 0.50 more goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +49 Elo | TB 57.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 62.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 61.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VAN | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.119th of 32 |
| 29th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 2.910th of 32 |
| 28th of 32−0.6 | Margin | +0.210th of 32 |
| 29th of 3246.9% | Shot share | 48.4%22nd of 32 |
| 20th of 3289.4% | Save percentage | 90.1%13th of 32 |
| 22nd of 324–6 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 32 |
| 12th of 325–5 | Road vs home | 4–417th of 32 |
| 18th of 321500 | Opponent Elo | 15084th of 32 |
| 23rd of 321481 | Elo rating | 15357th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VAN |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 11–8 | 6–11 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–4 | 1–11 |
| Underdog | 10–4 | 5–0 |
| Overs–unders | 14–5 | 7–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 9–1 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VAN 1–3 TB in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.