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Tampa Bay Lightning at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast

FinalESPN+, Scripps Sports, The Spot - MTN

Away

Lightning

9-6-2

3–1

at

Home

Panthers

9-8-1

TB 43%FLA 57%

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Amerant Bank Arena · ESPN+, Scripps Sports, The Spot - MTN

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.

FLA favored TB favored4 scoring plays
P1P2P3FLA50%TB

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Panthers

Scoring summary

  • P319:09Zemgus Girgensons Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Yanni Gourde (3)3–1
  • P34:09Jack Finley Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Curtis Douglas (2), Scott Sabourin (1)2–1
  • P211:31Brad Marchand Goal (12) Backhand, assists: Sam Reinhart (3), Anton Lundell (11)1–1
  • P112:19Emil Lilleberg Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (8)1–0

Turning points

The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P112:19Emil Lilleberg Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (8)TB 1 – 0 FLA · TB 44% → 60% +16
  2. P211:31Brad Marchand Goal (12) Backhand, assists: Sam Reinhart (3), Anton Lundell (11)TB 1 – 1 FLA · FLA 34% → 55% +21
  3. P34:09Jack Finley Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Curtis Douglas (2), Scott Sabourin (1)TB 2 – 1 FLA · TB 46% → 73% +27
  4. P319:09Zemgus Girgensons Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Yanni Gourde (3)TB 3 – 1 FLA · TB >99% → >99% +0

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Panthers 57%

LeanMiss
TB 43%FLA 57%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.

Market
FLA 57%
ML TB +125 / FLA -145
Pre-line forecast
FLA 56%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
FLA 59%
Ratings vs. market
+2.2 pts
FLA: Elo 59.3%, market 57.1%
Fair odds
FLA -133
TB +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
TB 2.5 – 3.0 FLA
Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorTBFLAWhy
Team rating15301554Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies+3+9TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.24 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsFLA +65 EloFLA 59.3%
Market-implied ratingsFLA 54.8%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastFLA 55.7%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastFLA 57.1%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

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Tampa Bay Lightning and Florida Panthers compared, with each team's league rank
TBStatFLA
17th of 323.1Goals scored2.925th of 32
12th of 323.0Goals allowed3.012th of 32
15th of 32+0.1Margin−0.121st of 32
20th of 3248.5%Shot share52.4%8th of 32
14th of 3289.9%Save percentage89.5%21st of 32
2nd of 327–3Last 106–47th of 32
11th of 324–4Road vs home6–23rd of 32
8th of 321505Opponent Elo149031st of 32
7th of 321530Elo rating15542nd of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

LightningPanthers
14501500155016001650league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonTBFLA
Puck line5–115–12
Last 104–64–6
Favorite1–113–11
Underdog4–02–1
Overs–unders7–98–9
Overs–unders, last 104–66–4

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

TB 5–12 FLA in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 17.