Washington Capitals at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Capitals- Rasmus SandinGoals1
- Rasmus SandinAssists1
- Rasmus SandinPoints2
Panthers- Sam ReinhartGoals2
- Anton LundellAssists3
- Sam ReinhartPoints3
Scoring summary
- P318:30Eetu Luostarinen Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Brad Marchand (9), Anton Lundell (10)3–6
- P312:40Rasmus Sandin Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: John Carlson (10)3–5
- P39:47Seth Jones Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Brad Marchand (8), Anton Lundell (9)2–5
- P34:54Sam Reinhart Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Anton Lundell (8), Eetu Luostarinen (7)2–4
- P30:52Justin Sourdif Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Jakob Chychrun (8), Tom Wilson (8)2–3
- P214:41Sam Reinhart Goal (9) Backhand, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (6), Seth Jones (8)1–3
- P23:05Cole Schwindt Goal (2) Deflected, assists: Gustav Forsling (8), Eetu Luostarinen (6)1–2
- P18:53Evan Rodrigues Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Niko Mikkola (3), Sam Reinhart (2)1–1
- P18:25Brandon Duhaime Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Rasmus Sandin (4)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:25Brandon Duhaime Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Rasmus Sandin (4)WSH 1 – 0 FLA · WSH 48% → 63% +15WSH 48% → 63%+15 pts
- P18:53Evan Rodrigues Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Niko Mikkola (3), Sam Reinhart (2)WSH 1 – 1 FLA · FLA 37% → 52% +16FLA 37% → 52%+16 pts
- P23:05Cole Schwindt Goal (2) Deflected, assists: Gustav Forsling (8), Eetu Luostarinen (6)WSH 1 – 2 FLA · FLA 52% → 69% +18FLA 52% → 69%+18 pts
- P30:52Justin Sourdif Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Jakob Chychrun (8), Tom Wilson (8)WSH 2 – 3 FLA · WSH 9% → 25% +16WSH 9% → 25%+16 pts
- P34:54Sam Reinhart Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Anton Lundell (8), Eetu Luostarinen (7)WSH 2 – 4 FLA · FLA 77% → 93% +16FLA 77% → 93%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Panthers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- FLA 52%
- ML WSH +100 / FLA -120
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.4 pts
- FLA: Elo 53.5%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- FLA -109
- WSH +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 2.7 – 2.8 FLA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | FLA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1550 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +8 | −28 | WSH: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.21 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · FLA: Daniil Tarasov: team allows 0.71 more goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +25 Elo | FLA 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 52.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | FLA 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WSH | Stat | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 322.9 | Goals scored | 2.727th of 32 |
| 1st of 322.4 | Goals allowed | 3.011th of 32 |
| 8th of 32+0.4 | Margin | −0.323rd of 32 |
| 5th of 3253.3% | Shot share | 53.3%6th of 32 |
| 4th of 3291.4% | Save percentage | 89.2%23rd of 32 |
| 21st of 324–6 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 12th of 324–4 | Road vs home | 5–25th of 32 |
| 21st of 321499 | Opponent Elo | 148830th of 32 |
| 10th of 321523 | Elo rating | 15503rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 10–6 | 4–12 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 5–6 | 2–11 |
| Underdog | 5–0 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 7–9 | 7–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 3–3 FLA in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.