Edmonton Oilers at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Oilers- Darnell NurseGoals2
- Connor McDavidAssists2
- Darnell NursePoints2
Capitals- Tom WilsonGoals2
- Connor McMichaelAssists3
- Connor McMichaelPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:27Tom Wilson Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: none4–7
- P318:59Tom Wilson Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McMichael (8), John Carlson (13)4–6
- P37:47Leon Draisaitl Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (23), Evan Bouchard (14)4–5
- P36:37Anthony Beauvillier Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (12), Jakob Chychrun (12)3–5
- P32:41David Tomasek Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Andrew Mangiapane (4), Mattias Janmark (1)3–4
- P211:49Ryan Leonard Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Connor McMichael (7)2–4
- P112:17Darnell Nurse Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Zach Hyman (2)2–3
- P110:34Ryan Leonard Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McMichael (6), John Carlson (12)1–3
- P17:05Darnell Nurse Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (22), Leon Draisaitl (12)1–2
- P16:04Alex Ovechkin Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Jakob Chychrun (11), Matt Roy (3)0–2
- P12:17Aliaksei Protas Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: John Carlson (11), Justin Sourdif (1)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:17Aliaksei Protas Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: John Carlson (11), Justin Sourdif (1)EDM 0 – 1 WSH · WSH 53% → 67% +14WSH 53% → 67%+14 pts
- P211:49Ryan Leonard Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Connor McMichael (7)EDM 2 – 4 WSH · WSH 72% → 87% +15WSH 72% → 87%+15 pts
- P32:41David Tomasek Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Andrew Mangiapane (4), Mattias Janmark (1)EDM 3 – 4 WSH · EDM 8% → 23% +15EDM 8% → 23%+15 pts
- P36:37Anthony Beauvillier Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (12), Jakob Chychrun (12)EDM 3 – 5 WSH · WSH 79% → 94% +15WSH 79% → 94%+15 pts
- P37:47Leon Draisaitl Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (23), Evan Bouchard (14)EDM 4 – 5 WSH · EDM 5% → 20% +15EDM 5% → 20%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Capitals 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 53%
- ML EDM +105 / WSH -125
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.1 pts
- WSH: Elo 54.3%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- WSH -114
- EDM +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- EDM 3.2 – 3.3 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | EDM | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1533 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −4 | +6 | EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.10 more goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · WSH: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +30 Elo | WSH 54.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 54.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 54.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| EDM | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 323.0 | Goals scored | 2.827th of 32 |
| 29th of 323.6 | Goals allowed | 2.63rd of 32 |
| 29th of 32−0.6 | Margin | +0.210th of 32 |
| 9th of 3252.5% | Shot share | 53.0%7th of 32 |
| 31st of 3287.1% | Save percentage | 91.3%4th of 32 |
| 19th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 32 |
| 28th of 324–9 | Road vs home | 5–520th of 32 |
| 20th of 321496 | Opponent Elo | 15059th of 32 |
| 6th of 321533 | Elo rating | 151910th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  EDM |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 6–15 | 10–9 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–14 | 5–8 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 5–1 |
| Overs–unders | 12–9 | 8–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
EDM 2–2 WSH in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.