New Jersey Devils at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils- Luke HughesGoals1
- Luke HughesAssists1
- Luke HughesPoints2
Capitals- Alex OvechkinGoals1
- Alex OvechkinAssists1
- Alex OvechkinPoints2
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Simon Nemec Goal Snap Shot2–1
- SO0:00Jesper Bratt Goal Backhand2–1
- SO0:00Dylan Strome Goal Snap Shot2–1
- P38:29Alex Ovechkin Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McMichael (4), Dylan Strome (11)2–2
- P31:00Connor McMichael Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Ovechkin (9), Jakob Chychrun (9)2–1
- P117:46Luke Hughes Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Brenden Dillon (5), Jesper Bratt (12)2–0
- P15:05Arseny Gritsyuk Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Luke Hughes (10), Paul Cotter (2)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:05Arseny Gritsyuk Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Luke Hughes (10), Paul Cotter (2)NJ 1 – 0 WSH · NJ 42% → 57% +15NJ 42% → 57%+15 pts
- P117:46Luke Hughes Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Brenden Dillon (5), Jesper Bratt (12)NJ 2 – 0 WSH · NJ 60% → 76% +15NJ 60% → 76%+15 pts
- P31:00Connor McMichael Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Ovechkin (9), Jakob Chychrun (9)NJ 2 – 1 WSH · WSH 12% → 30% +18WSH 12% → 30%+18 pts
- P38:29Alex Ovechkin Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McMichael (4), Dylan Strome (11)NJ 2 – 2 WSH · WSH 23% → 54% +31WSH 23% → 54%+31 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Capitals 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 58%
- ML NJ +130 / WSH -150
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.8 pts
- WSH: Elo 57.2%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- WSH -138
- NJ +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 2.5 – 3.0 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | +5 | NJ: Jake Allen: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) · WSH: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +50 Elo | WSH 57.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 58.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 57.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 2.925th of 32 |
| 11th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 2.63rd of 32 |
| 6th of 32+0.5 | Margin | +0.29th of 32 |
| 10th of 3251.4% | Shot share | 53.7%5th of 32 |
| 16th of 3289.8% | Save percentage | 90.8%5th of 32 |
| 7th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 32 |
| 8th of 325–4 | Road vs home | 4–419th of 32 |
| 14th of 321502 | Opponent Elo | 150410th of 32 |
| 13th of 321510 | Elo rating | 151911th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NJ |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 7–10 | 10–7 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 3–8 | 5–6 |
| Underdog | 4–2 | 5–1 |
| Overs–unders | 9–8 | 8–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NJ 3–5 WSH in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.