Los Angeles Kings at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Anze KopitarGoals1
- Kevin FialaAssists1
- Anze KopitarPoints1
Capitals- Matt RoyGoals1
- Jakob ChychrunAssists1
- Alex OvechkinPoints1
Scoring summary
- P213:27Anze Kopitar Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Corey Perry (5), Kevin Fiala (6)1–2
- P21:51Alex Ovechkin Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McMichael (5), Jakob Chychrun (10)0–2
- P13:41Matt Roy Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Aliaksei Protas (6), Tom Wilson (9)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:41Matt Roy Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Aliaksei Protas (6), Tom Wilson (9)LA 0 – 1 WSH · WSH 51% → 66% +15WSH 51% → 66%+15 pts
- P21:51Alex Ovechkin Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McMichael (5), Jakob Chychrun (10)LA 0 – 2 WSH · WSH 68% → 83% +14WSH 68% → 83%+14 pts
- P213:27Anze Kopitar Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Corey Perry (5), Kevin Fiala (6)LA 1 – 2 WSH · LA 13% → 29% +15LA 13% → 29%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Capitals 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 51%
- ML LA -105 / WSH -115
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.8 pts
- WSH: Elo 50.3%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- WSH -104
- LA +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LA 2.7 – 2.8 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LA | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1529 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | −15 | LA: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · WSH: Charlie Lindgren: team allows 0.38 more goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +2 Elo | WSH 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 51.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| LA | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 322.9 | Goals scored | 2.823rd of 32 |
| 11th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 2.75th of 32 |
| 14th of 320.0 | Margin | +0.210th of 32 |
| 7th of 3252.5% | Shot share | 53.5%5th of 32 |
| 16th of 3289.9% | Save percentage | 91.0%5th of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 2–830th of 32 |
| 2nd of 329–3 | Road vs home | 4–523rd of 32 |
| 7th of 321506 | Opponent Elo | 150412th of 32 |
| 7th of 321529 | Elo rating | 151611th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LA |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 9–10 | 10–8 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–8 | 5–7 |
| Underdog | 6–2 | 5–1 |
| Overs–unders | 9–10 | 8–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LA 1–3 WSH in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.