Los Angeles Kings at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each period. Above the line favors OTT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Alex LaferriereGoals1
- Mikey AndersonAssists1
- Alex LaferrierePoints1
SenatorsScoring summary
- P19:19Alex Laferriere Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Mikey Anderson (4), Quinton Byfield (13)1–0
Turning points
The play that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:19Alex Laferriere Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Mikey Anderson (4), Quinton Byfield (13)LA 1 – 0 OTT · LA 50% → 65% +15LA 50% → 65%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Senators 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- OTT 50%
- ML LA -110 / OTT -110
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.0 pts
- OTT: Elo 53.0%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- OTT -100
- LA -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LA 2.8 – 2.8 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LA | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −13 | −4 | LA: Anton Forsberg: team allows 0.32 more goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · OTT: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.09 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OTT +21 Elo | OTT 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 53.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OTT 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| LA | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.65th of 32 |
| 15th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.630th of 32 |
| 19th of 32−0.1 | Margin | 0.017th of 32 |
| 7th of 3252.5% | Shot share | 51.3%11th of 32 |
| 20th of 3289.5% | Save percentage | 87.0%30th of 32 |
| 7th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 2nd of 328–3 | Road vs home | 6–411th of 32 |
| 8th of 321506 | Opponent Elo | 149129th of 32 |
| 8th of 321527 | Elo rating | 150314th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LA |  OTT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 8–10 | 7–11 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–8 | 2–10 |
| Underdog | 5–2 | 5–1 |
| Overs–unders | 9–9 | 12–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LA 3–1 OTT in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.